32850 Mill Creek Dr #67

Cleone, CA 95437

$129,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,586/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $362/mo
• Annual: $4,339/yr
• Cap rate: 9.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.01%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,100 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, schools D+.
• Fort Bragg Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #918 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $129k implies a 330% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.