32850 Mill Creek Dr #67 · Cleone, CA 95437

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Manufactured · 11 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition 2,500 sqft lot $152/sqft · 41% above area Est $92k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Some homes simply feel good the moment you step inside--warm, effortless, and cared for in a way that tells a quiet story of pride and stewardship. Tucked within the peaceful Ocean's Edge Estates community, this immaculate coastal retreat offers the perfect blend of comfort, affordability, and Mendocino Coast charm. Meticulously maintained, this turnkey 3-bedroom, 1-bath home lives large with a bright, cheerful interior and thoughtful updates throughout. The kitchen features a generous pantry and gas range, ideal for cooking after a long day at the beach. A well-appointed laundry room and storage shed, both in excellent condition, add practicality and ease. Set in a safe, all-ages community, the space rent remains attractively low at $710 per month plus utilities, making this an exceptional opportunity for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone seeking a low-maintenance second home by the sea. And the location? Just across Highway 1 lies the treasured MacKerricher State Park--your gateway to seven miles of breathtaking coastal trails, tidepools, whale watching, sunset vistas, and summertime fishing. Here, nature becomes part of your everyday rhythm. Cozy, clean, and absolutely move-in ready, this sweet coastal haven invites you to slow down, explore, and enjoy the best of Fort Bragg's shoreline living.

Key facts

• Generous pantry
• In-unit laundry
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GAS RANGE
• GENEROUS PANTRY
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• DEDICATED STORAGE SHED
• SCENIC COASTAL TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,100 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, schools D+.
• Fort Bragg Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #918 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $129k implies a 330% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.01%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,626
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 40.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,147
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $31,618
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95437

• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,586 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on marketlisting id $129,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 179 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 177 DOM
14. 2026-01-22
    price $129,000 1325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1325 chars)

    Some homes simply feel good the moment you step inside--warm, effortless, and cared for in a way that tells a quiet story of pride and stewardship. Tucked within the peaceful Ocean's Edge Estates community, this immaculate coastal retreat offers the perfect blend of comfort, affordability, and Mendocino Coast charm. Meticulously maintained, this turnkey 3-bedroom, 1-bath home lives large with a bright, cheerful interior and thoughtful updates throughout. The kitchen features a generous pantry and gas range, ideal for cooking after a long day at the beach. A well-appointed laundry room and storage shed, both in excellent condition, add practicality and ease. Set in a safe, all-ages community, the space rent remains attractively low at $710 per month plus utilities, making this an exceptional opportunity for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone seeking a low-maintenance second home by the sea. And the location? Just across Highway 1 lies the treasured MacKerricher State Park--your gateway to seven miles of breathtaking coastal trails, tidepools, whale watching, sunset vistas, and summertime fishing. Here, nature becomes part of your everyday rhythm. Cozy, clean, and absolutely move-in ready, this sweet coastal haven invites you to slow down, explore, and enjoy the best of Fort Bragg's shoreline living.

15. 2025-12-05
    listed $149,000 Active 1325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1325 chars)

    Some homes simply feel good the moment you step inside--warm, effortless, and cared for in a way that tells a quiet story of pride and stewardship. Tucked within the peaceful Ocean's Edge Estates community, this immaculate coastal retreat offers the perfect blend of comfort, affordability, and Mendocino Coast charm. Meticulously maintained, this turnkey 3-bedroom, 1-bath home lives large with a bright, cheerful interior and thoughtful updates throughout. The kitchen features a generous pantry and gas range, ideal for cooking after a long day at the beach. A well-appointed laundry room and storage shed, both in excellent condition, add practicality and ease. Set in a safe, all-ages community, the space rent remains attractively low at $710 per month plus utilities, making this an exceptional opportunity for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone seeking a low-maintenance second home by the sea. And the location? Just across Highway 1 lies the treasured MacKerricher State Park--your gateway to seven miles of breathtaking coastal trails, tidepools, whale watching, sunset vistas, and summertime fishing. Here, nature becomes part of your everyday rhythm. Cozy, clean, and absolutely move-in ready, this sweet coastal haven invites you to slow down, explore, and enjoy the best of Fort Bragg's shoreline living.

16. 1992-08-21
    soldstatus $30,000 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Great vacation home at affordable price. Immaculate 2 bd, 2 BA mobilehome in family park. Excellent condition. New laundry room, workshop, fenced yard, deck, new roof 2 car parking. Close to State Park & beach

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥76°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,523
• − Management: −$1,523
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $2,429
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$583
• After-tax cash flow: $3,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This turnkey 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Ocean's Edge Estates is in good condition with fresh paint and updates, making it an ideal starter home or affordable second home on the Mendocino Coast.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both update landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both install new windows — improves energy efficiency and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both update landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both install new windows — improves energy efficiency and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bragg Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614070
• Math proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,510
• Composite: 31.75/100
• National rank: #11096
• State rank: #918 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Cleone

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1100
• US rank: #25471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleone, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,106

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 17% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Russian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -653.20%
• Current HPI: 201.8012
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+330.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $129,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $149,000 CRMLS
• 1992-08-21 Sold (MLS) $30,000 CRMLS