37 John St

Greenwich, NY 12834

$125,000C-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · Built 1830 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,455/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$625
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-131/mo
• Annual: $-1,572/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (0.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#507 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenwich Central School District (town): math 59% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #266 of 755 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.0% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $125k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.