37 John St · Greenwich, NY 12834

$125,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1830

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Older brick home, needs a a lot of work!. existing slate roof needs repair or replacement. village water, onsite sewage system updated 1st floor bath crawl space masonry needs work updated electric panel previously had electric heat, baseboards were mostly removed at some point and switched to pellet stove. needs new kitchen no upstairs bath floors need leveling Freshly reseeded lawn (Lot was cleared of overgrowth and debri) most windows were replaced at some point with vinyl windows Buyers will need cash or creative financing ( most banks will not lend for houses in this condition) text justin at 518 888 6234 for a showing

Key facts

• Built 1830
• Listed 39 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (0.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#507 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenwich Central School District (town): math 59% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #266 of 755 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $125k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.0% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,840
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Cabel St	0.30mi	4/3.0	1,768 (-0%)	1mo	$365,000	$206	77
1 Cambridge Rd	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+2%)	2mo	$182,000	$101	67
65 Corliss Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,551 (-13%)	7mo	$260,700	$168	59
22 Van Ness Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,800 (+2%)	20mo	$295,000	$164	56
3 Prospect St	0.60mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-3%)	17mo	$275,000	$160	44
8 Whipple Pl	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,920 (+8%)	19mo	$249,900	$130	41
25 Carl Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,946 (+10%)	15mo	$460,000	$236	33
33 Barber Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,551 (-13%)	22mo	$127,600	$82	31
17 Lyttle Ln	0.68mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,888 (+6%)	20mo	$290,000	$154	28
13 Wilson St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (+8%)	22mo	$402,000	$209	25
6 Simpson St	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,014 (+14%)	19mo	$277,000	$138	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $60,015
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $183,847
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12834

• Home prices YoY: 21.5%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,455 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$517 /mo · $6,208/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,621

Max offer price $124,154

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $316	-5% $273	+0% $-131	+5% $-166	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-188	+0% $-131	+5% $-73	+10% $-16
Rate	-1.0pp $-68	-0.5pp $-99	base $-131	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $125,000 Active 631-char remark
17. 2011-07-07
    historical
18. 2011-01-25
    listed $100,000
19. 1996-12-31
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,208 · $517/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,208 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$6,208
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,397
• − Management: −$1,397
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$3,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$833
• After-tax cash flow: $-739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenwich Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612900
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,128
• Composite: 53.45/100
• National rank: #3147
• State rank: #266 of 755 in NY

Livability — Greenwich

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #8929

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greenwich, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,137

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,576 people
• By 2030: 57,618 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 52,751 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 47,514 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 35,690 · -40.1%
• By 2100: 24,807 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Chinese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+20.2 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 66.00%
• Current HPI: 373.2809
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com
• 2011-07-07 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2011-01-25 Listed $100,000 Global MLS
• 1996-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,208 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.