108 W 138th St Unit 2C

New York, NY 10030

$699,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,018 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax + insurance: −$1,165
• HOA: −$1,051
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,093
• Net cashflow: $-1,772/mo
• Annual: $-21,260/yr
• Cap rate: 3.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.86%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $195,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $699k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $443k (36.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $520k (25.6% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($689k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $443k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$98k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $5,203/mo this rent would consume 157% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 4110% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.