437, 441, 445 Stephenson Rd

Brucetown, VA 22656

$575,000C

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · Built 1950 · MultiFamily · Active · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,253/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$958
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,313
• Net cashflow: $966/mo
• Annual: $11,594/yr
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.20%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $161,000

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $575k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $575k).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($506k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $506k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.2% in Brucetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,253/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.