437, 441, 445 Stephenson Rd · Brucetown, VA 22656

$575,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · MultiFamily · 135 Days on market

Built 1950 0.69 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity featuring three separate detached homes on one parcel. Each home offers central air with efficient heat pumps and newer roofs, providing peace of mind and reduced capital expenses. Property is serviced by public water with pump-and-haul septic systems in place. Ideal setup for investors seeking multiple income streams with well-maintained improvements already in place. Turnkey opportunity for investors seeking immediate income with leases already in place.

Key facts

• 0.69 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 134 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Property condition listed as average; Year built estimated

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Private septic tank
• Home design: Detached property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block and stone foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Corner lot; Shed on property; Above-grade other structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms on main level; 3 full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s) heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $575k).
• Recommended offer: $506k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.2% in Brucetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,253/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($506k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $506,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.20%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-31,544
• Equity at exit: $85,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $52,153
• Equity at exit: $49,715

Cash invested: $161,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22656

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 23.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$719 /mo · $8,625/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,313
• Net cashflow: $966

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,030

Max offer price $575,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,364	-5% $1,165	+0% $966	+5% $767	+10% $569
Rent	-10% $472	-5% $719	+0% $966	+5% $1,213	+10% $1,460
Rate	-1.0pp $1,256	-0.5pp $1,112	base $966	+0.5pp $817	+1.0pp $666

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	1	$6,252
Total (3 units)			$6,253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,750
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $575,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $575,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $575,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $575,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $575,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $575,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $575,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $575,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $575,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $575,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $575,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $575,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $575,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $575,000 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $575,000 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-02-05
    listed $575,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity featuring three separate detached homes on one parcel. Each home offers central air with efficient heat pumps and newer roofs, providing peace of mind and reduced capital expenses. Property is serviced by public water with pump-and-haul septic systems in place. Ideal setup for investors seeking multiple income streams with well-maintained improvements already in place. Turnkey opportunity for investors seeking immediate income with leases already in place.

18. 2026-02-05
    listed $575,000 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity featuring three separate detached homes on one parcel. Each home offers central air with efficient heat pumps and newer roofs, providing peace of mind and reduced capital expenses. Property is serviced by public water with pump-and-haul septic systems in place. Ideal setup for investors seeking multiple income streams with well-maintained improvements already in place. Turnkey opportunity for investors seeking immediate income with leases already in place.

19. 2026-01-29
    historical $575,000

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity featuring three separate detached homes on one parcel. Each home offers central air with efficient heat pumps and newer roofs, providing peace of mind and reduced capital expenses. Property is serviced by public water with pump-and-haul septic systems in place. Ideal setup for investors seeking multiple income streams with well-maintained improvements already in place. Turnkey opportunity for investors seeking immediate income with leases already in place.

20. 2026-01-29
    historical $575,000 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity featuring three separate detached homes on one parcel. Each home offers central air with efficient heat pumps and newer roofs, providing peace of mind and reduced capital expenses. Property is serviced by public water with pump-and-haul septic systems in place. Ideal setup for investors seeking multiple income streams with well-maintained improvements already in place. Turnkey opportunity for investors seeking immediate income with leases already in place.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,209
• − Property taxes: −$8,625
• − Insurance: −$2,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,003
• − Management: −$6,003
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable income: $2,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$623
• After-tax cash flow: $10,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101470
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,049
• Composite: 49.75/100
• National rank: #1964
• State rank: #65 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brucetown

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Frederick County · 60,887 people
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• Population (ZIP): 5,360
• Household income: $107,135
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,976 people
• By 2030: 97,195 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 104,149 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 108,407 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 116,431 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 114,323 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 8% Black 4% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.2% · R 63.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.04%
• Current HPI: 190.5857
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $575,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $575,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-29 Coming Soon $575,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-29 Coming Soon $575,000 BRIGHT MLS