30030 Knots Ln

Dagsboro, DE 19939

$475,000D-

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,029/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$792
• HOA: −$170
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-1,850/mo
• Annual: $-22,196/yr
• Cap rate: 1.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.69%
• DSCR: 0.26
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (56.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (57.3% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (57.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#55 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clayton (John M.) Elementary School (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #43 of 105 statewide, top 40%, 481 students, 0% FRL); Selbyville Middle School (math 20% / reading 49%, grade F, #12 of 36 statewide, top 34%, 719 students, 0% FRL); Indian River High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #10 of 40 statewide, top 26%, 1,088 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $475k implies a 375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.6% vs local median 2.1% in Dagsboro — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.