30030 Knots Ln · Dagsboro, DE 19939

$475,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 2020 7,875 sqft lot $291/sqft · 9% above area Est $653k · 27% under $170/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.5/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely coastal contemporary home with a welcoming covered front porch, inviting you to relax and savor the serene surroundings. Step into the foyer where luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly through the main living areas, creating a warm and cohesive atmosphere throughout the home. To the right, a front-facing bedroom and full bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests. Down the hall, a private office with French doors offers an ideal space for working from home or quiet study, while the nearby laundry room provides convenient access to the two-car garage. The main living area is bright and airy, anchored by soaring two-story ceilings, abundant windows, and recessed lighting. The gourmet kitchen features granite countertops, a gas cooktop, stainless steel appliances, double wall ovens, a walk-in pantry, and celestial windows above the cabinetry. A large center island with double sink and dishwasher is perfect for gathering and meal prep, while the adjoining dining area, with easy flow to the great room, is ideal for both casual meals and entertaining. The great room centers around a cozy fireplace, offering a warm and inviting focal point. The main-level primary suite is a private retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bath featuring a dual vanity and wide tiled shower with bench seating. Upstairs, a spacious loft provides a flexible living area for movie nights, reading, or game time, with a subtle water view through the great room windows. An additional generously sized bedroom could serve as a second primary suite, complete with a large walk-in closet and access to a Jack-and-Jill style bath. Ample storage is available with a large walk-in attic and under-stair storage, while a central vacuum system adds convenience throughout. This home is fully furnished with select exclusions, making it ready for immediate enjoyment. A boat slip and boat lift, sold separately, offer a rare opportunity to enjoy waterfront living and direct access to the water - perfect for boating, fishing, and all the adventures of coastal life. Outside, a patio creates the perfect setting for alfresco dining, entertaining, or simply relaxing while enjoying the gentle coastal breezes. Located in the desirable Marina at Pepper Creek, residents enjoy exceptional amenities including a clubhouse, marina, fire pit, outdoor pool, and fitness center, all designed to enhance a relaxed and active Coastal lifestyle.

Key facts

• 7,875 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (56.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (57.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (57.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.6% vs local median 2.1% in Dagsboro — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#55 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clayton (John M.) Elementary School (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #43 of 105 statewide, top 40%, 481 students, 0% FRL); Selbyville Middle School (math 20% / reading 49%, grade F, #12 of 36 statewide, top 34%, 719 students, 0% FRL); Indian River High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #10 of 40 statewide, top 26%, 1,088 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $475k implies a 375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,905 (57.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.69%
• DSCR: 0.26
• GRM: 19.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $652,885
• List price: $475,000
• Delta: -27.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30502 Constant Sea Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,666 (+2%)	8mo	$483,800	$290	68
38141 Jetty Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-4%)	11mo	$434,900	$277	67
32373 Gypsea Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+1%)	20mo	$460,000	$280	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $141,026
• Equity at exit: $427,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $508,210
• Equity at exit: $922,821

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19939

• Home prices YoY: 9.4%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 19.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$594 /mo · $7,125/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$170
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-1,850

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,370

Max offer price $207,350

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,521	-5% $-1,686	+0% $-1,850	+5% $-2,014	+10% $-2,178
Rent	-10% $-2,010	-5% $-1,930	+0% $-1,850	+5% $-1,770	+10% $-1,689
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,610	-0.5pp $-1,729	base $-1,850	+0.5pp $-1,973	+1.0pp $-2,098

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $170 · $2,040/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspoolgym

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $475,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $475,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $475,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $475,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $475,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $475,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $475,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-03-19
    listed $500,000 Active 2463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2463 chars)

    Lovely coastal contemporary home with a welcoming covered front porch, inviting you to relax and savor the serene surroundings. Step into the foyer where luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly through the main living areas, creating a warm and cohesive atmosphere throughout the home. To the right, a front-facing bedroom and full bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests. Down the hall, a private office with French doors offers an ideal space for working from home or quiet study, while the nearby laundry room provides convenient access to the two-car garage. The main living area is bright and airy, anchored by soaring two-story ceilings, abundant windows, and recessed lighting. The gourmet kitchen features granite countertops, a gas cooktop, stainless steel appliances, double wall ovens, a walk-in pantry, and celestial windows above the cabinetry. A large center island with double sink and dishwasher is perfect for gathering and meal prep, while the adjoining dining area, with easy flow to the great room, is ideal for both casual meals and entertaining. The great room centers around a cozy fireplace, offering a warm and inviting focal point. The main-level primary suite is a private retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bath featuring a dual vanity and wide tiled shower with bench seating. Upstairs, a spacious loft provides a flexible living area for movie nights, reading, or game time, with a subtle water view through the great room windows. An additional generously sized bedroom could serve as a second primary suite, complete with a large walk-in closet and access to a Jack-and-Jill style bath. Ample storage is available with a large walk-in attic and under-stair storage, while a central vacuum system adds convenience throughout. This home is fully furnished with select exclusions, making it ready for immediate enjoyment. A boat slip and boat lift, sold separately, offer a rare opportunity to enjoy waterfront living and direct access to the water - perfect for boating, fishing, and all the adventures of coastal life. Outside, a patio creates the perfect setting for alfresco dining, entertaining, or simply relaxing while enjoying the gentle coastal breezes. Located in the desirable Marina at Pepper Creek, residents enjoy exceptional amenities including a clubhouse, marina, fire pit, outdoor pool, and fitness center, all designed to enhance a relaxed and active Coastal lifestyle.

17. 2026-03-11
    historical $500,000 2463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2463 chars)

    Lovely coastal contemporary home with a welcoming covered front porch, inviting you to relax and savor the serene surroundings. Step into the foyer where luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly through the main living areas, creating a warm and cohesive atmosphere throughout the home. To the right, a front-facing bedroom and full bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests. Down the hall, a private office with French doors offers an ideal space for working from home or quiet study, while the nearby laundry room provides convenient access to the two-car garage. The main living area is bright and airy, anchored by soaring two-story ceilings, abundant windows, and recessed lighting. The gourmet kitchen features granite countertops, a gas cooktop, stainless steel appliances, double wall ovens, a walk-in pantry, and celestial windows above the cabinetry. A large center island with double sink and dishwasher is perfect for gathering and meal prep, while the adjoining dining area, with easy flow to the great room, is ideal for both casual meals and entertaining. The great room centers around a cozy fireplace, offering a warm and inviting focal point. The main-level primary suite is a private retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bath featuring a dual vanity and wide tiled shower with bench seating. Upstairs, a spacious loft provides a flexible living area for movie nights, reading, or game time, with a subtle water view through the great room windows. An additional generously sized bedroom could serve as a second primary suite, complete with a large walk-in closet and access to a Jack-and-Jill style bath. Ample storage is available with a large walk-in attic and under-stair storage, while a central vacuum system adds convenience throughout. This home is fully furnished with select exclusions, making it ready for immediate enjoyment. A boat slip and boat lift, sold separately, offer a rare opportunity to enjoy waterfront living and direct access to the water - perfect for boating, fishing, and all the adventures of coastal life. Outside, a patio creates the perfect setting for alfresco dining, entertaining, or simply relaxing while enjoying the gentle coastal breezes. Located in the desirable Marina at Pepper Creek, residents enjoy exceptional amenities including a clubhouse, marina, fire pit, outdoor pool, and fitness center, all designed to enhance a relaxed and active Coastal lifestyle.

18. 2025-11-15
    historical
19. 2025-07-29
    price $510,000
20. 2025-06-18
    price $530,000
21. 2025-04-02
    listed $549,000 Active
22. 2020-06-10
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$7,125
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − HOA: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$31,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,563
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River School District
• NCES district ID: 1000680
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $53,838
• Composite: 28.99/100
• National rank: #6620
• State rank: #14 of 26 in DE

Livability — Dagsboro

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #15015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,833

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 3% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% German 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.76%
• Current HPI: 312.7341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $500,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Coming Soon $500,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $510,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $530,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-02 Listed $549,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $945 · -24.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.