8799 Highway J

Centerville, MO 63625

$139,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 1985 · Other · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,134/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $64/mo
• Annual: $766/yr
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($766/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (18.4% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#820 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lesterville R-IV (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #350 of 535 in MO (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lesterville Elementary (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C, #190 of 1,115 statewide, top 19%, 77 students, 42% FRL); Lesterville High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 79 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 57% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP.
• Reynolds County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.