8799 Highway J · Centerville, MO 63625

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Other public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1985 1.07 ac lot $72/sqft · 86% above area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this move in ready, hilltop berm home located the quaint, rural community of Oates, Missouri. This 1985 build has 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and 1,920 sq. ft. of living space. Many updates in 2020-2022 to include HVAC system w/heat pump, new stainless appliances to include French door/bottom drawer refrigerator, smooth top electric range, built-in microwave and dw. Some new floor covering. Updated bathroom with tall vanity, oversized shower with seat, toiletry cabinet and a linen closet. Main bedroom has double closets. Plenty of storage as there are 5 closets. Nice sized utility room and a water softner, seller owned, stays with the property. 20' x 20' carport and 8' x 10' utility building. Just a short distance to the Doe Run Mine and the recycling plant. Enjoy the Ozarks as nearby is Sutton Bluff motorcycle and ATV park, Council Bluff Lake, the Black River for kayaking, floating and fishing, Brushy Creek Resort for horseback riding. Make it your home or a vacation rental.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Solid foundation
• Brick ranch home

Tags

• BRICK RANCH HOME
• GENEROUS LOT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• SOLID FOUNDATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Forced air heating; Propane heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: One-level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($766/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#820 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lesterville R-IV (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #350 of 535 in MO (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lesterville Elementary (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C, #190 of 1,115 statewide, top 19%, 77 students, 42% FRL); Lesterville High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 79 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 57% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Reynolds County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $113,401 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,900
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 85.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $14,883
• Equity at exit: $56,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $54,765
• Equity at exit: $82,138

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63625

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $543/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,053

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $139,000 Active 376-char remark
16. 2022-08-25
    soldstatus
17. 2022-08-24
    soldstatus Closed 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Take a look at this move in ready, hilltop berm home located the quaint, rural community of Oates, Missouri. This 1985 build has 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and 1,920 sq. ft. of living space. Many updates in 2020-2022 to include HVAC system w/heat pump, new stainless appliances to include French door/bottom drawer refrigerator, smooth top electric range, built-in microwave and dw. Some new floor covering. Updated bathroom with tall vanity, oversized shower with seat, toiletry cabinet and a linen closet. Main bedroom has double closets. Plenty of storage as there are 5 closets. Nice sized utility room and a water softner, seller owned, stays with the property. 20' x 20' carport and 8' x 10' utility building. Just a short distance to the Doe Run Mine and the recycling plant. Enjoy the Ozarks as nearby is Sutton Bluff motorcycle and ATV park, Council Bluff Lake, the Black River for kayaking, floating and fishing, Brushy Creek Resort for horseback riding. Make it your home or a vacation rental.

18. 2022-07-06
    status Pending 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Take a look at this move in ready, hilltop berm home located the quaint, rural community of Oates, Missouri. This 1985 build has 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and 1,920 sq. ft. of living space. Many updates in 2020-2022 to include HVAC system w/heat pump, new stainless appliances to include French door/bottom drawer refrigerator, smooth top electric range, built-in microwave and dw. Some new floor covering. Updated bathroom with tall vanity, oversized shower with seat, toiletry cabinet and a linen closet. Main bedroom has double closets. Plenty of storage as there are 5 closets. Nice sized utility room and a water softner, seller owned, stays with the property. 20' x 20' carport and 8' x 10' utility building. Just a short distance to the Doe Run Mine and the recycling plant. Enjoy the Ozarks as nearby is Sutton Bluff motorcycle and ATV park, Council Bluff Lake, the Black River for kayaking, floating and fishing, Brushy Creek Resort for horseback riding. Make it your home or a vacation rental.

19. 2022-06-01
    listed $149,000 Active 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Take a look at this move in ready, hilltop berm home located the quaint, rural community of Oates, Missouri. This 1985 build has 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and 1,920 sq. ft. of living space. Many updates in 2020-2022 to include HVAC system w/heat pump, new stainless appliances to include French door/bottom drawer refrigerator, smooth top electric range, built-in microwave and dw. Some new floor covering. Updated bathroom with tall vanity, oversized shower with seat, toiletry cabinet and a linen closet. Main bedroom has double closets. Plenty of storage as there are 5 closets. Nice sized utility room and a water softner, seller owned, stays with the property. 20' x 20' carport and 8' x 10' utility building. Just a short distance to the Doe Run Mine and the recycling plant. Enjoy the Ozarks as nearby is Sutton Bluff motorcycle and ATV park, Council Bluff Lake, the Black River for kayaking, floating and fishing, Brushy Creek Resort for horseback riding. Make it your home or a vacation rental.

20. 2017-07-25
    soldstatus
21. 2014-09-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $543 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,348 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$806/yr (+$67/mo · 148.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$543
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,089
• − Management: −$1,089
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$393
• After-tax cash flow: $1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lesterville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2918450
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,234
• Composite: 34.31/100
• National rank: #10218
• State rank: #350 of 535 in MO

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #820
• US rank: #24429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 501

Population outlook (Reynolds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,854 people
• By 2030: 5,521 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 4,841 · -17.3%
• By 2050: 4,167 · -28.8%
• By 2075: 2,906 · -50.4%
• By 2100: 2,165 · -63.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Reynolds

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.3) · D 15.4% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -57.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.1pp · 2024: -68.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.3 2020: R+66.8 2016: R+61.4 2012: R+24.1 2008: R+11.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Current HPI: 99.4564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $139,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-24 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-06 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-01 Listed $149,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $543 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.