2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,015 sqft ·
Built 2010
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 45 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,460/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$991
Tax + insurance
−$255
HOA
−$18
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$307
Net cashflow
$-111/mo
Annual
$-1,336/yr
Cap rate
5.59%
Cash-on-cash
-2.52%
DSCR
0.89
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$52,920
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (10.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (22.8% below list).
It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $146k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Mustang (suburban): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #28 of 270 in OK (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mustang Valley Es (math 50% / reading 40%, grade D-, #60 of 845 statewide, top 7%, 652 students, 0% FRL); Canyon Ridge Ies (math 43% / reading 36%, grade F, #8 of 345 statewide, top 2%, 749 students, 0% FRL); Mustang Hs (math 28% / reading 39%, grade F, #65 of 447 statewide, top 14%, 3,756 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 28% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 260 units permitted in Canadian County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Canadian County population projected at +64% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZJR0AYDV45BB6V
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29