5127 Lacenter Rd

La Center, KY 42024

$49,400B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 2005 · Other · Active · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,111/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$259
• Tax + insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $554/mo
• Annual: $6,653/yr
• Cap rate: 19.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.10%
• DSCR: 3.14
• 1% rule: 2.25%
• Cash to close: $13,832

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $49k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $554 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $395 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#415 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, amenities F.
• Ballard County (rural): math 31% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #61 of 165 in KY (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ballard County Elementary School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #208 of 676 statewide, top 34%, 467 students, 58% FRL); Ballard County Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 215 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.
• Ballard County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (48%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.