4803 W State Road 238

Worthington Springs, FL 32054

$375,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,113 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,296/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$309
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-1,252/mo
• Annual: $-15,022/yr
• Cap rate: 2.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.31%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 0.35%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (59.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (65.4% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (65.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#689 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Union (town): math 62% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #17 of 73 in FL (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $172k; list at $375k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 65% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.