4803 W State Road 238 · Worthington Springs, FL 32054

$375,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,113 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1986 2.11 ac lot $177/sqft · 16% above area Est $445k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your own private retreat! Nestled beneath a breathtaking canopy of mature oak trees, this charming solid brick home sits on over 2 beautiful acres along a desirable paved road, offering the perfect blend of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. From the moment you arrive, you’ll be captivated by the picturesque setting, scenic drive in, and inviting curb appeal that make this property feel like home. Step onto the adorable front porch and into a warm, welcoming interior featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a thoughtfully designed layout perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The heart of the home is the beautifully updated kitchen, comp

Key facts

• Mature oak trees
• Paved road
• Over 2 acres

Tags

• PRIVATE RETREAT
• MATURE OAK TREES
• OVER 2 ACRES
• PAVED ROAD
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Directions: Off 238 near NW CR 241 Road

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 garage space; Carport with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 2.11 acres
• Exterior features: Front porch; Exterior storage; Above-ground private pool; Barn(s); Oak trees on property; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (59.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (65.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (65.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#689 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Union (town): math 62% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #17 of 73 in FL (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $172k; list at $375k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,634 (65.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 65% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.35% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.31%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 24.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $445,172
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -15.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9076 NW 45th Ct	0.45mi	3/2.5	2,211 (+5%)	19mo	$540,000	$244	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $124,330
• Equity at exit: $337,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $428,483
• Equity at exit: $728,543

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32054

• Home prices YoY: 16.6%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 24.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,838/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-1,252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,881

Max offer price $153,855

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,040	-5% $-1,146	+0% $-1,252	+5% $-1,358	+10% $-1,464
Rent	-10% $-1,354	-5% $-1,303	+0% $-1,252	+5% $-1,201	+10% $-1,149
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,063	-0.5pp $-1,156	base $-1,252	+0.5pp $-1,349	+1.0pp $-1,448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $375,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $375,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $375,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $375,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $375,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $375,000 Active 2374-char remark
18. 2014-09-03
    historical
19. 2012-11-27
    soldstatus $172,000
20. 2012-03-05
    listed $204,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,838 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,112 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,274/yr (+$106/mo · 69.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$1,838
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$22,561
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,415
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union
• NCES district ID: 1201890
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,908
• Composite: 48.59/100
• National rank: #2111
• State rank: #17 of 73 in FL

Livability — Worthington Springs

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #689
• US rank: #14375

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 156
• Population (ZIP): 12,467

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,613 people
• By 2030: 14,322 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,780 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 13,325 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 11,965 · -18.1%
• By 2100: 9,102 · -37.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 14% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.3) · D 15.6% · R 83.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -49.9pp · 2024: -68.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.3 2020: R+65.3 2016: R+62.4 2012: R+49.0 2008: R+49.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.99%
• Current HPI: 239.3346
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+83.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-05 Listed $204,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,838 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.