1930 Cobyville Ct

Lexington-Fayette, KY 40511

$184,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 171 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,830/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $337/mo
• Annual: $4,044/yr
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.81%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $51,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (1.0% below list).
• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mary Todd Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 382 students, 77% FRL); Winburn Middle School (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #138 of 217 statewide, top 65%, 800 students, 66% FRL); Bryan Station High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #209 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 1,893 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 44% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fayette County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.