634 Mertens Ave

Syracuse, NY 13203

$299,000F

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,053/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$263
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-210/mo
• Annual: $-2,515/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (31.3% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Syracuse Latin School (math 31% / reading 62%, grade D-, #1,262 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 642 students, 42% FRL); Lincoln Middle School (math 8% / reading 14%, grade F, #721 of 729 statewide, top 99%, 508 students, 90% FRL); Henninger High School (math 65% / reading 50%, grade C, #885 of 1,100 statewide, top 81%, 1,499 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Syracuse City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 55 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $149k; list at $299k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,053/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 1566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.