634 Mertens Ave · Syracuse, NY 13203

$299,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1946 8,134 sqft lot Est $204k · 46% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Schoeck-built w/ gorgeous architectual detailing * Very spacious bedrms (1 2nd flr bedr used as laundry rm-hook-ups in basmt)Ist flr den has closet-poss. 5th bedr * Private wooded lot w/ deck * 23 Ft lvg/dng rm w/ built-in corner cabinets & bookshelves * 2 FP-gas-lvg rm & wood-basmt

Key facts

• Rich hardwood floors
• Newer appliances
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• BUILT-IN CORNER CABINETS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• FRESHLY PAINTED KITCHEN
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• AMPLE STORAGE
• RICH HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Driveway parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric service
• Home design: Single-story property; Resale condition
• Construction: Brick and cedar construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation; Copper plumbing
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch; Awnings; Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Rectangular lot; Near public transit; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; Two half bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dry bar; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Pantry; Storage; Natural woodwork; Workshop; Bedroom on main level; Has full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Syracuse Latin School (math 31% / reading 62%, grade D-, #1,262 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 642 students, 42% FRL); Lincoln Middle School (math 8% / reading 14%, grade F, #721 of 729 statewide, top 99%, 508 students, 90% FRL); Henninger High School (math 65% / reading 50%, grade C, #885 of 1,100 statewide, top 81%, 1,499 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Syracuse City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 55 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,053/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 1566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $149k; list at $299k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $205,279 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
158 Darlington Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,329 (-5%)	2mo	$186,000	$140	68
204 Kline St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (+9%)	2mo	$278,750	$183	64
714 Helen St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-11%)	7mo	$173,000	$139	61
619 Dewitt St	0.28mi	4/1.5	1,588 (+13%)	5mo	$248,000	$156	60
709 Darlington Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,416 (+1%)	3mo	$207,000	$146	59
321 Dewitt St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,310 (-6%)	6mo	$175,000	$134	56
215 Tower Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,416 (+1%)	3mo	$241,500	$171	54
125 Paul Ave	0.65mi	4/1.5	1,527 (+9%)	1mo	$210,000	$138	54
339 Orwood Pl	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,320 (-6%)	5mo	$226,000	$171	53
308 Kenwick Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-11%)	3mo	$180,000	$144	50
222 Maplehurst Ave	0.75mi	4/1.0	1,248 (-11%)	6mo	$110,000	$88	40
303 Snyder Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,225 (-12%)	4mo	$220,000	$180	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-51,062
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-12,735
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13203

• Home prices YoY: -11.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.4%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,664/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $261,981

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-40	-5% $-125	+0% $-210	+5% $-294	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-372	-5% $-291	+0% $-210	+5% $-128	+10% $-47
Rate	-1.0pp $-59	-0.5pp $-134	base $-210	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
423 Wendell Ter Syracuse, NY	4.0	1.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	15d	1	0.11mi
126 Woodruff Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,675	$1.40	45d	1	0.30mi
1801 James St #2 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1244	$1,800	$1.45	15d	1	0.62mi
286 Ross Park Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	46d	1	0.87mi
204 Mariposa St Unit pvt house Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1128	$2,137	$1.89	15d	1	0.90mi
746 E Laurel St Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	0.90mi
912 Park St Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	45d	1	0.92mi
202 Stafford Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1692	$1,800	$1.06	15d	1	1.04mi
297 Norwood Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1188	$2,050	$1.73	23d	1	1.12mi
525 Burnet Ave Unit First Floor Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	45d	1	1.32mi
205A Hawley Ave Unit 211C Syracuse, NY	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,675	$1.24	45d	1	1.33mi
205A Hawley Ave Unit 213C Syracuse, NY	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	45d	1	1.33mi
1132 Wolf St Unit 4 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,350	$1.30	45d	1	1.42mi
416 Pearl St Unit 2 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $299,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $319,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $319,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 695-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $319,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,664 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,359 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,694/yr (+$141/mo · 101.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,664
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,914
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,899
• After-tax cash flow: $-615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 152,627
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,180
• Household income: $46,997
• Rent vs Own: 63.8% rent · 36.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1566.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, India, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.69%
• Current HPI: 263.2588
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.39%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+168.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $319,000 CNYIS
• 2015-05-21 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-04-20 Sold (MLS) $149,100 CNYIS
• 2015-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $149,500 Public Records
• 2014-09-13 Listed $154,900 CNYIS
• 2002-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,664 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.