1011 Ed Padgett Rd

Stanford, KY 40489

$94,500C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,177 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,004/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $135/mo
• Annual: $1,626/yr
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.14%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $26,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $996 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#226 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lincoln County (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #131 of 165 in KY (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Waynesburg Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 190 students, 83% FRL); Lincoln County Middle School (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #165 of 217 statewide, top 77%, 745 students, 67% FRL); Lincoln County High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #151 of 254 statewide, top 61%, 951 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.9% in Stanford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.