1011 Ed Padgett Rd · Stanford, KY 40489

$94,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,177 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2020 0.79 ac lot ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2021, you do not want to miss this beautiful three year old home! This 44x26 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,177 sq ft home sits on approximately .79 acres, & conveniently located only 20 minutes from Stanford. Modern updates really give this home its charm. As you walk in the door you will notice the gorgeous vinyl flooring. The open concept living room leads you into a kitchen equipped with marble laminate countertops, and a shiplapped island with built in storage. All stainless steel appliances, which will convey with the property. This home offers a master suite, as well as two guest bedroom and a full bath. The back yard can be transformed into an oasis itself, 3/4 fenced and majority flat. This home is perfect for a first time homebuyer, or a growing family! Seller will include a $1,000 flooring allowance. Outdoor pergola, shed, and chicken coop with convery with property. Some furnishings negotiable. Do not hesitate, this property will go quick! Set up your showing today!

Key facts

• Split bedroom design
• Manufactured home
• Almost level lot

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• ALMOST LEVEL LOT
• RURAL SETTING
• OPEN LIVING ROOM KITCHEN AREA
• SPLIT BEDROOM DESIGN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.79 acre (per public records)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured house; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built area approximately 1,144
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Public water; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced air heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Total of 8 rooms; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.9% in Stanford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#226 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lincoln County (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #131 of 165 in KY (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Waynesburg Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 190 students, 83% FRL); Lincoln County Middle School (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #165 of 217 statewide, top 77%, 745 students, 67% FRL); Lincoln County High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #151 of 254 statewide, top 61%, 951 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $996 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,665 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.14%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,299
• Equity at exit: $22,563

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $19,773
• Equity at exit: $23,482

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40489

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,472/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $832

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $162	+0% $135	+5% $109	+10% $82
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $96	+0% $135	+5% $175	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $160	base $135	+0.5pp $111	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $94,500
3. 2026-03-16
   listed $99,450 Active
4. 2025-02-13
   historical
5. 2024-12-13
   status Active
6. 2024-12-12
   historical
7. 2024-12-11
   status Active
8. 2024-11-14
   historical
9. 2024-11-13
   status Active
10. 2024-11-06
    historical
11. 2024-05-06
    listed $165,000 Active
12. 2023-04-12
    soldstatus $149,900
13. 2023-04-11
    soldstatus $149,900 Closed 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Built in 2021, you do not want to miss this beautiful three year old home! This 44x26 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,177 sq ft home sits on approximately .79 acres, & conveniently located only 20 minutes from Stanford. Modern updates really give this home its charm. As you walk in the door you will notice the gorgeous vinyl flooring. The open concept living room leads you into a kitchen equipped with marble laminate countertops, and a shiplapped island with built in storage. All stainless steel appliances, which will convey with the property. This home offers a master suite, as well as two guest bedroom and a full bath. The back yard can be transformed into an oasis itself, 3/4 fenced and majority flat. This home is perfect for a first time homebuyer, or a growing family! Seller will include a $1,000 flooring allowance. Outdoor pergola, shed, and chicken coop with convery with property. Some furnishings negotiable. Do not hesitate, this property will go quick! Set up your showing today!

14. 2023-03-08
    status Pending 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Built in 2021, you do not want to miss this beautiful three year old home! This 44x26 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,177 sq ft home sits on approximately .79 acres, & conveniently located only 20 minutes from Stanford. Modern updates really give this home its charm. As you walk in the door you will notice the gorgeous vinyl flooring. The open concept living room leads you into a kitchen equipped with marble laminate countertops, and a shiplapped island with built in storage. All stainless steel appliances, which will convey with the property. This home offers a master suite, as well as two guest bedroom and a full bath. The back yard can be transformed into an oasis itself, 3/4 fenced and majority flat. This home is perfect for a first time homebuyer, or a growing family! Seller will include a $1,000 flooring allowance. Outdoor pergola, shed, and chicken coop with convery with property. Some furnishings negotiable. Do not hesitate, this property will go quick! Set up your showing today!

15. 2023-02-25
    price $149,900 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Built in 2021, you do not want to miss this beautiful three year old home! This 44x26 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,177 sq ft home sits on approximately .79 acres, & conveniently located only 20 minutes from Stanford. Modern updates really give this home its charm. As you walk in the door you will notice the gorgeous vinyl flooring. The open concept living room leads you into a kitchen equipped with marble laminate countertops, and a shiplapped island with built in storage. All stainless steel appliances, which will convey with the property. This home offers a master suite, as well as two guest bedroom and a full bath. The back yard can be transformed into an oasis itself, 3/4 fenced and majority flat. This home is perfect for a first time homebuyer, or a growing family! Seller will include a $1,000 flooring allowance. Outdoor pergola, shed, and chicken coop with convery with property. Some furnishings negotiable. Do not hesitate, this property will go quick! Set up your showing today!

16. 2023-02-18
    listed $158,000 Active 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Built in 2021, you do not want to miss this beautiful three year old home! This 44x26 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,177 sq ft home sits on approximately .79 acres, & conveniently located only 20 minutes from Stanford. Modern updates really give this home its charm. As you walk in the door you will notice the gorgeous vinyl flooring. The open concept living room leads you into a kitchen equipped with marble laminate countertops, and a shiplapped island with built in storage. All stainless steel appliances, which will convey with the property. This home offers a master suite, as well as two guest bedroom and a full bath. The back yard can be transformed into an oasis itself, 3/4 fenced and majority flat. This home is perfect for a first time homebuyer, or a growing family! Seller will include a $1,000 flooring allowance. Outdoor pergola, shed, and chicken coop with convery with property. Some furnishings negotiable. Do not hesitate, this property will go quick! Set up your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,472 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,472 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$1,472
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$964
• − Management: −$964
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$32
• After-tax cash flow: $1,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln County
• NCES district ID: 2103480
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $35,356
• Composite: 22.68/100
• National rank: #8042
• State rank: #131 of 165 in KY

Livability — Stanford

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #11103

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,238

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,293 people
• By 2030: 22,392 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 20,336 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 18,016 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 12,976 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 8,446 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.2) · D 18.9% · R 80.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -38.5pp · 2024: -61.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.2 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+57.3 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+38.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 233.047
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-40.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $94,500 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $99,450 ImagineMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2024-12-13 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2024-12-12 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2024-12-11 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2024-11-14 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2024-11-13 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2024-11-06 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2024-05-06 Listed $165,000 ImagineMLS
• 2023-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $149,900 Public Records
• 2023-04-11 Sold (MLS) $149,900 ImagineMLS
• 2023-03-08 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2023-02-25 Price Changed $149,900 ImagineMLS
• 2023-02-18 Listed $158,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+33.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,472 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.