511 Don Ln

Itasca, TX 76055

$184,990C+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 287 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,731/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $89/mo
• Annual: $1,068/yr
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $51,797

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (6.4% below list).
• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL); Itasca Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 164 students, 62% FRL); Itasca H S (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,106 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 192 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 140d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.7% in Itasca — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.