511 Don Ln · Itasca, TX 76055

$184,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 286 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 5,663 sqft lot $116/sqft · 11% below area Est $207k · 11% under ↓ 53% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21130956 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600-1 B1 - Everglades The Everglades Plan from our Freedom Series offers an ideal blend of space, functionality, and value. This charming 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,600 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Step into the welcoming entryway, where you’ll find a convenient half bathroom and the staircase leading to the upper level. Continue down the hall past the laundry room and into the open-concept living area. The kitchen, complete with a central island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating a perfect space for meals and family time. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with its own bathroom. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom complete the upper level, providing ample space for guests.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.7% in Itasca — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL); Itasca Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 164 students, 62% FRL); Itasca H S (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,106 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 192 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $162,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,409
• List price: $184,990
• Delta: -10.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
515 Don Ln	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,600 (0%)	1mo	$199,990	$125	98
503 Don Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,600 (0%)	2mo	$199,990	$125	95
104 Beard Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,562 (-2%)	6mo	$130,000	$83	79
507 Don Ln	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,802 (+13%)	2mo	$209,990	$117	77
605 S Files St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (+4%)	7mo	$224,900	$135	74
512 Don Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-6%)	12mo	$249,900	$166	73
525 Don Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,401 (-12%)	2mo	$199,990	$143	72
604 E South St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (-4%)	6mo	$249,999	$163	66
526 Don Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,401 (-12%)	13mo	$182,990	$131	64
205 E South St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,462 (-9%)	11mo	$219,900	$150	54
705 E South St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-11%)	13mo	$214,900	$150	47
105 E North St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-6%)	5mo	$158,000	$105	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $106,444
• Equity at exit: $166,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $309,054
• Equity at exit: $359,395

Cash invested: $51,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.6 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $189,950 ($137/sqft)
• Median days on market: 107 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $184,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $153	+0% $89	+5% $25	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $21	+0% $89	+5% $157	+10% $226
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $136	base $89	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,248
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	139d	1	0.22mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	73d	1	0.41mi
108 E Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	139d	1	0.48mi
106 W Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	139d	1	0.56mi
501 E Monroe St Itasca, TX	3.0	1.0	1642	$1,750	$1.07	0d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $184,990 Active 286 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $184,990 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $184,990 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $184,990 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $184,990 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $184,990 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $184,990 Active 278 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $184,990 Active 277 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $184,990 Active 276 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $184,990 Active 275 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    pricedays on market $184,990 Active 274 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $187,990 Active 268 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $187,990 Active 267 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $187,990 Active 266 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $187,990 Active 265 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $187,990 Active 261 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $187,990 Active 260 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $187,990 Active 259 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $187,990 Active 258 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $187,990 Active 257 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $187,990 Active 256 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $187,990 Active 255 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $187,990 Active 254 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $187,990 Active 253 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    price $187,990 Active 252 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $189,990 Active 252 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $189,990 Active 251 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $189,990 Active 250 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $189,990 Active 249 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $189,990 Active 248 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $189,990 Active 247 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $189,990 Active 246 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $189,990 Active 245 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    pricedays on market $189,990 Active 244 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $194,990 Active 243 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    price $194,990 Active 242 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $199,990 Active 242 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $199,990 Active 241 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $199,990 Active 240 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $199,990 Active 239 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $199,990 Active 238 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $199,990 Active 237 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $199,990 Active 236 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $199,990 Active 235 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $199,990 Active 232 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    pricedays on market $199,990 Active 230 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $202,990 Active 228 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $202,990 Active 226 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $202,990 Active 225 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $202,990 Active 224 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,362
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$479
• After-tax cash flow: $1,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good balance of modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior, making it a solid investment for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 29/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Itasca El F TX #3,052/4,322 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Itasca Middle F TX #971/1,662 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Itasca H S F TX #1,106/1,632 Nat'l #11,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• County: Hill · 34,013 people
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719
• Household income: $77,627
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-52.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $212,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $212,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $228,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $228,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $224,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $225,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $225,544 Zillow
• 2025-12-11 Listed $225,544 NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $448,534 Zillow