511 Don Ln · Itasca, TX 76055

$199,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 240 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 5,663 sqft lot $125/sqft · 5% below area Est $211k · 5% under ↓ 53% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21130956 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600-1 B1 - Everglades The Everglades Plan from our Freedom Series offers an ideal blend of space, functionality, and value. This charming 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,600 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Step into the welcoming entryway, where you’ll find a convenient half bathroom and the staircase leading to the upper level. Continue down the hall past the laundry room and into the open-concept living area. The kitchen, complete with a central island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating a perfect space for meals and family time. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with its own bathroom. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom complete the upper level, providing ample space for guests.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-103/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL); Itasca Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 164 students, 62% FRL); Itasca H S (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,106 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 192 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $173,861 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,598
• List price: $199,990
• Delta: -5.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
503 Don Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,600 (0%)	0mo	$199,990	$125	96
104 Beard Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,562 (-2%)	4mo	$130,000	$83	80
507 Don Ln	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,802 (+13%)	0mo	$209,990	$117	78
605 S Files St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (+4%)	5mo	$224,900	$135	75
512 Don Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-6%)	10mo	$249,900	$166	74
525 Don Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,401 (-12%)	0mo	$199,990	$143	74
604 E South St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (-4%)	4mo	$249,999	$163	68
526 Don Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,401 (-12%)	11mo	$182,990	$131	66
205 E South St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,462 (-9%)	9mo	$219,900	$150	55
705 E South St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-11%)	11mo	$214,900	$150	48
105 E North St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-6%)	4mo	$158,000	$105	47
103 S Hooks St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-12%)	14mo	$282,000	$199	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $108,399
• Equity at exit: $180,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $319,700
• Equity at exit: $388,537

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.8 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $207,495 ($151/sqft)
• Median days on market: 147 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -12.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,739 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $198,748

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $61	+0% $-9	+5% $-78	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $-77	+0% $-9	+5% $60	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $42	base $-9	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	93d	1	0.22mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	26d	1	0.41mi
108 E Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	93d	1	0.48mi
106 W Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	93d	1	0.56mi
501 E Monroe St Itasca, TX	3.0	1.0	1642	$1,800	$1.10	1d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $199,990 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $199,990 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $199,990 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $199,990 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $199,990 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $199,990 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $199,990 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   pricedays on market $199,990 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $202,990 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $202,990 Active 226 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $202,990 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $202,990 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $202,990 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $202,990 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    pricedays on market $202,990 Active 221 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $205,990 Active 219 DOM
17. 2026-07-17
    days on market $205,990 Active 218 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $205,990 Active 217 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $205,990 Active 216 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $205,990 Active 215 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $205,990 Active 214 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $205,990 Active 213 DOM
23. 2026-07-12
    days on market $205,990 Active 212 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $205,990 Active 211 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $205,990 Active 210 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $205,990 Active 208 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $205,990 Active 207 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $205,990 Active 206 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $205,990 Active 205 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $205,990 Active 204 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $205,990 Active 203 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $205,990 Active 202 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $205,990 Active 201 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $205,990 Active 200 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $205,990 Active 199 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $205,990 Active 198 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $205,990 Active 197 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $205,990 Active 194 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $205,990 Active 193 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $205,990 Active 192 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $205,990 Active 191 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $205,990 Active 189 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $205,990 Active 188 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $205,990 Active 187 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $205,990 Active 186 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $205,990 Active 184 DOM
47. 2026-06-12
    days on market $205,990 Active 183 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $205,990 Active 180 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,990 Active 179 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,990 Active 178 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$839
• After-tax cash flow: $736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good balance of modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior, making it a solid investment for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 29/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Itasca El F TX #3,052/4,322 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Itasca Middle F TX #971/1,662 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Itasca H S F TX #1,106/1,632 Nat'l #11,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• County: Hill · 34,013 people
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719
• Household income: $77,627
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-52.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $212,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $212,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $228,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $228,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $224,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $225,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $225,544 Zillow
• 2025-12-11 Listed $225,544 NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $448,534 Zillow