27618 Spearmint Ridge Dr

Katy, TX 77493

$345,990D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,541/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,814
• Tax + insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$145
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-279/mo
• Annual: $-3,349/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $96,877

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $346k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-279 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (26.5% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($336k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.