27618 Spearmint Ridge Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$345,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Land · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 $193/sqft · 86% below area $145/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! Village Builders Bristol Collection “Beckham” Plan with Elevation “C” in Sunterra! This single-story home has everything growing families need with three bedrooms in total and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while down the hall is the family room, kitchen and dining room with access to the back porch. Tucked into the back corner is the owner’s suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Private bathroom
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $346k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-279 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($336k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,146 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,500,000
• List price: $345,990
• Delta: -86.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-81,316
• Equity at exit: $51,588

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-122,586
• Equity at exit: $29,915

Cash invested: $96,877 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,541 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,814
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,402/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$145
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,895

Max offer price $296,684

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,498
• Closing costs: $10,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	1d	1	0.07mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	43d	1	0.23mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	12d	1	0.29mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	24d	1	0.30mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	22d	1	0.32mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	15d	1	0.36mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	43d	1	0.38mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	16d	1	0.40mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	24d	1	0.49mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	43d	1	0.65mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	43d	1	0.67mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	43d	1	0.71mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	20d	1	0.83mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	24d	1	0.84mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	43d	1	0.85mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	43d	1	0.89mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	24d	1	0.90mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	12d	1	0.96mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	12d	1	0.99mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	24d	1	1.00mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	24d	1	1.03mi
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	43d	1	1.05mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	12d	1	1.05mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.05mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.07mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	12d	1	1.09mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,406	$1.41	1d	25	1.13mi
26802 Cenzontle Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	43d	1	1.14mi
7402 Clover Chase Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	43d	1	1.20mi
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	43d	1	1.42mi
7410 Hillside Arbor Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2289	$2,400	$1.05	43d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $145 · $1,740/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   NEW! Village Builders Bristol Collection “Beckham” Plan with Elevation “C” in Sunterra! This single-story home has everything growing families need with three bedrooms in total and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while down the hall is the family room, kitchen and dining room with access to the back porch. Tucked into the back corner is the owner’s suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

2. 2026-05-18
   price $345,990 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   NEW! Village Builders Bristol Collection “Beckham” Plan with Elevation “C” in Sunterra! This single-story home has everything growing families need with three bedrooms in total and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while down the hall is the family room, kitchen and dining room with access to the back porch. Tucked into the back corner is the owner’s suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

3. 2026-05-12
   price $297,990 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   NEW! Village Builders Bristol Collection “Beckham” Plan with Elevation “C” in Sunterra! This single-story home has everything growing families need with three bedrooms in total and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while down the hall is the family room, kitchen and dining room with access to the back porch. Tucked into the back corner is the owner’s suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

4. 2026-05-04
   price $300,140 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   NEW! Village Builders Bristol Collection “Beckham” Plan with Elevation “C” in Sunterra! This single-story home has everything growing families need with three bedrooms in total and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while down the hall is the family room, kitchen and dining room with access to the back porch. Tucked into the back corner is the owner’s suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

5. 2026-04-30
   price $305,000 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   NEW! Village Builders Bristol Collection “Beckham” Plan with Elevation “C” in Sunterra! This single-story home has everything growing families need with three bedrooms in total and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while down the hall is the family room, kitchen and dining room with access to the back porch. Tucked into the back corner is the owner’s suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

6. 2026-04-27
   price $314,090 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   NEW! Village Builders Bristol Collection “Beckham” Plan with Elevation “C” in Sunterra! This single-story home has everything growing families need with three bedrooms in total and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while down the hall is the family room, kitchen and dining room with access to the back porch. Tucked into the back corner is the owner’s suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

7. 2026-04-13
   price $309,990 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   NEW! Village Builders Bristol Collection “Beckham” Plan with Elevation “C” in Sunterra! This single-story home has everything growing families need with three bedrooms in total and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while down the hall is the family room, kitchen and dining room with access to the back porch. Tucked into the back corner is the owner’s suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

8. 2026-04-06
   price $335,040 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   NEW! Village Builders Bristol Collection “Beckham” Plan with Elevation “C” in Sunterra! This single-story home has everything growing families need with three bedrooms in total and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while down the hall is the family room, kitchen and dining room with access to the back porch. Tucked into the back corner is the owner’s suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

9. 2026-04-02
   price $325,240 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   NEW! Village Builders Bristol Collection “Beckham” Plan with Elevation “C” in Sunterra! This single-story home has everything growing families need with three bedrooms in total and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while down the hall is the family room, kitchen and dining room with access to the back porch. Tucked into the back corner is the owner’s suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

10. 2026-03-31
    listed $309,990 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    NEW! Village Builders Bristol Collection “Beckham” Plan with Elevation “C” in Sunterra! This single-story home has everything growing families need with three bedrooms in total and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while down the hall is the family room, kitchen and dining room with access to the back porch. Tucked into the back corner is the owner’s suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,402 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,332 · $528/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,930/yr (+$411/mo · 351.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,381
• − Property taxes: −$1,402
• − Insurance: −$2,527
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,440
• − Management: −$2,440
• − HOA: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$10,065
• Taxable loss: −$9,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,279
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $345,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $297,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $300,140 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $314,090 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $309,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $335,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $325,240 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $309,990 HARMLS