1307 S Water St #72

Silverton, OR 97381

$148,700B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,131/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$780
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $761/mo
• Annual: $9,131/yr
• Cap rate: 12.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.93%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $41,636

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $761 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#90 in OR, #4,448 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B; Watch: cost of living D+, commute F.
• Silver Falls SD 4J (town): math 40% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #8 of 58 in OR (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mark Twain Elementary (282 students, 49% FRL); Silverton Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #96 of 128 statewide, top 78%, 444 students, 31% FRL); Silverton High School (math 42% / reading 82%, grade B-, #19 of 143 statewide, top 13%, 1,238 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $149k implies a 246% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 2.5% in Silverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.