1307 S Water St #72 · Silverton, OR 97381

$148,700

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1987 $92/sqft · 8% below area Est $161k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Accepted Offer with Contingencies. Wonderful double wide in Silverton Senior Mobile Estates, 55+ park, well cared for, $623 park rent for garbage, sewer, water, community center and road maintenance. 3 bedroom, 2 bath with open floor plan, 3rd bedroom can be easily utilized as another family room or a home office. Nicely maintained landscaping and garden area, plus an outdoor covered deck. Easy to view. Contingent on Park approval

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Outdoor covered deck
• Garden area

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• OUTDOOR COVERED DECK
• NICELY MAINTAINED LANDSCAPING
• GARDEN AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-5
• HOA & community: Community amenities: meeting room, party room; community-provided water, sewer and trash; Located in Silverton Mobile Estates (park); Park lot rent $623 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Electric fuel; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (Skyline Mayfield model); Residential property, not attached; Approximately 1,620 main level area; Built in 1987; No notable view
• Construction: Composition roof; T-111 siding; Built in 1987
• Exterior features: T-111 siding; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level); 2nd bedroom (main level); 3rd bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wood stove; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (main level); Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $761 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 2.5% in Silverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#90 in OR, #4,448 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B; Watch: cost of living D+, commute F.
• Silver Falls SD 4J (town): math 40% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #8 of 58 in OR (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mark Twain Elementary (282 students, 49% FRL); Silverton Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #96 of 128 statewide, top 78%, 444 students, 31% FRL); Silverton High School (math 42% / reading 82%, grade B-, #19 of 143 statewide, top 13%, 1,238 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $149k implies a 246% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,469 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.93%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,301
• List price: $148,700
• Delta: -7.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1307 S Water St #74	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,620 (0%)	5mo	$140,000	$86	96
1307 S Water St #45	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,689 (+4%)	12mo	$175,000	$104	83
1307 S Water St #81	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-7%)	2mo	$167,000	$110	82
1307 S Water St #64	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-11%)	6mo	$159,900	$111	71
1307 S Water St #70	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-13%)	14mo	$120,000	$85	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $24,337
• Equity at exit: $22,172

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $83,468
• Equity at exit: $12,857

Cash invested: $41,636 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97381

• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$780
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $969/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,168

Max offer price $148,700

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $845	-5% $803	+0% $761	+5% $719	+10% $677
Rent	-10% $593	-5% $677	+0% $761	+5% $845	+10% $929
Rate	-1.0pp $836	-0.5pp $799	base $761	+0.5pp $722	+1.0pp $683

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,175
• Closing costs: $4,461
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
329 Fossholm St NE Silverton, OR	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,986	$1.81	15d	4	0.20mi
405 N 3rd St Silverton, OR	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,050	$1.86	45d	1	0.63mi
965 Todd Ct Silverton, OR	3.0	2.5	1100	$2,400	$2.18	45d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $148,700 Active 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Accepted Offer with Contingencies. Wonderful double wide in Silverton Senior Mobile Estates, 55+ park, well cared for, $623 park rent for garbage, sewer, water, community center and road maintenance. 3 bedroom, 2 bath with open floor plan, 3rd bedroom can be easily utilized as another family room or a home office. Nicely maintained landscaping and garden area, plus an outdoor covered deck. Easy to view. Contingent on Park approval

2. 2026-05-06
   listed $148,700 Active 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Accepted Offer with Contingencies. Wonderful double wide in Silverton Senior Mobile Estates, 55+ park, well cared for, $623 park rent for garbage, sewer, water, community center and road maintenance. 3 bedroom, 2 bath with open floor plan, 3rd bedroom can be easily utilized as another family room or a home office. Nicely maintained landscaping and garden area, plus an outdoor covered deck. Easy to view. Contingent on Park approval

3. 1991-07-01
   soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,442 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$474/yr (+$39/mo · 48.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,330
• − Property taxes: −$969
• − Insurance: −$744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − Depreciation: −$4,326
• Taxable income: $7,112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,707
• After-tax cash flow: $7,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Silver Falls SD 4J
• NCES district ID: 4111450
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,066
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3224
• State rank: #8 of 58 in OR

Livability — Silverton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #4448

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silverton, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 15,405
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 15,405
• Household income: $89,383
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 496.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.05%
• Current HPI: 305.0118
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+245.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-05-26 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $148,700 WVMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $148,700 RMLS
• 1991-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $969 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.