100 Gumtree Rd

Kirkville, MS 38856

$157,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · Built 1989 · Other · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,271/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-84/mo
• Annual: $-1,014/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $44,100

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (19.3% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $127k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Itawamba County School District (rural): math 35% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #58 of 130 in MS (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Itawamba County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Itawamba County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.