100 Gumtree Rd · Kirkville, MS 38856

$157,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · Other · 14 Days on market

Built 1989 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious remodeled 1850 sq ft property featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a functional layout with ample living space. Come check this home out today.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1989
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual property tax approximately $872

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story mobile home (doublewide); Residential property
• Exterior features: 1.52 acre lot; Rural directions: Turn right onto CR 371, then in a mile take left on Donivan Rd, 2.5 miles turn left onto Ramey Road, then left onto Gumtree Rd; property will be on the left

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; 2 full bathrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Itawamba County School District (rural): math 35% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #58 of 130 in MS (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Itawamba County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Itawamba County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,082 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $19,657
• Equity at exit: $77,251

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $70,311
• Equity at exit: $124,317

Cash invested: $44,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38856

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$197 /mo · $2,362/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,378

Max offer price $145,273

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-30	+0% $-84	+5% $-139	+10% $-193
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-135	+0% $-84	+5% $-34	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-5	-0.5pp $-44	base $-84	+0.5pp $-125	+1.0pp $-167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,375
• Closing costs: $4,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $157,500 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $157,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,822
• − Property taxes: −$2,362
• − Insurance: −$788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$4,582
• Taxable loss: −$3,744
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$899
• After-tax cash flow: $-115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itawamba County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802100
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $37,158
• Composite: 27.48/100
• National rank: #6956
• State rank: #58 of 130 in MS

Livability — Kirkville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,442

Population outlook (Itawamba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,011 people
• By 2030: 23,999 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 23,738 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 22,962 · -4.4%
• By 2075: 20,240 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,503 · -31.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Itawamba

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+80.0) · D 9.7% · R 89.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: -56.1pp · 2024: -80.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+80.0 2020: R+75.6 2016: R+75.6 2012: R+61.0 2008: R+56.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Current HPI: 117.8357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — NEMSBD
• 2026-05-01 Listed $157,500 NEMSBD

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2018): $49 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.