8781 Griggs Ave

Lexington, MN 55014

$279,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 825 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,366/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$341
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $60/mo
• Annual: $719/yr
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($719/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#38 in MN, #1,096 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Centennial Public School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #26 of 301 in MN (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Golden Lake Elementary (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #180 of 857 statewide, top 23%, 416 students, 42% FRL); Centennial Middle (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C+, #59 of 258 statewide, top 24%, 1,529 students, 26% FRL); Centennial High School (math 55% / reading 55%, grade C, #83 of 471 statewide, top 18%, 1,982 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 13% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $280k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.