8781 Griggs Ave · Lexington, MN 55014

$279,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 825 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1947 0.25 ac lot $339/sqft · 44% above area Est $268k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated single-family rambler in Circle Pines! This move-in-ready home features a brand-new kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, new washer and dryer, new flooring throughout, and fresh paint. Enjoy the fully renovated bathroom, along with major exterior and mechanical updates including a new driveway, gutters, and utilities. A perfect blend of modern upgrades and comfortable living!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1947

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($719/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#38 in MN, #1,096 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Centennial Public School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #26 of 301 in MN (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Golden Lake Elementary (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #180 of 857 statewide, top 23%, 416 students, 42% FRL); Centennial Middle (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C+, #59 of 258 statewide, top 24%, 1,529 students, 26% FRL); Centennial High School (math 55% / reading 55%, grade C, #83 of 471 statewide, top 18%, 1,982 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 13% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $280k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $236,602 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,825
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: 4.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-41,583
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-31,465
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55014

• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,290

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $139	+0% $60	+5% $-19	+10% $-99
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-34	+0% $60	+5% $153	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $131	base $60	+0.5pp $-13	+1.0pp $-86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9001 Griggs Ave Circle Pines, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	761	$2,525	$3.32	0d	24	0.18mi
5891 Rice Creek Pkwy Shoreview, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	926	$2,251	$2.43	0d	23	1.42mi
1556 Hillview Rd Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Beautifully updated single-family rambler in Circle Pines! This move-in-ready home features a brand-new kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, new washer and dryer, new flooring throughout, and fresh paint. Enjoy the fully renovated bathroom, along with major exterior and mechanical updates including a new driveway, gutters, and utilities. A perfect blend of modern upgrades and comfortable living!

2. 2026-05-06
   historical Contingent - Inspection 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Beautifully updated single-family rambler in Circle Pines! This move-in-ready home features a brand-new kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, new washer and dryer, new flooring throughout, and fresh paint. Enjoy the fully renovated bathroom, along with major exterior and mechanical updates including a new driveway, gutters, and utilities. A perfect blend of modern upgrades and comfortable living!

3. 2026-05-02
   status Active 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Beautifully updated single-family rambler in Circle Pines! This move-in-ready home features a brand-new kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, new washer and dryer, new flooring throughout, and fresh paint. Enjoy the fully renovated bathroom, along with major exterior and mechanical updates including a new driveway, gutters, and utilities. A perfect blend of modern upgrades and comfortable living!

4. 2026-04-27
   historical Contingent - Inspection 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Beautifully updated single-family rambler in Circle Pines! This move-in-ready home features a brand-new kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, new washer and dryer, new flooring throughout, and fresh paint. Enjoy the fully renovated bathroom, along with major exterior and mechanical updates including a new driveway, gutters, and utilities. A perfect blend of modern upgrades and comfortable living!

5. 2026-04-24
   status Active 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Beautifully updated single-family rambler in Circle Pines! This move-in-ready home features a brand-new kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, new washer and dryer, new flooring throughout, and fresh paint. Enjoy the fully renovated bathroom, along with major exterior and mechanical updates including a new driveway, gutters, and utilities. A perfect blend of modern upgrades and comfortable living!

6. 2026-04-19
   historical Contingent - Inspection 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Beautifully updated single-family rambler in Circle Pines! This move-in-ready home features a brand-new kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, new washer and dryer, new flooring throughout, and fresh paint. Enjoy the fully renovated bathroom, along with major exterior and mechanical updates including a new driveway, gutters, and utilities. A perfect blend of modern upgrades and comfortable living!

7. 2026-04-17
   listed $279,900 Active 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Beautifully updated single-family rambler in Circle Pines! This move-in-ready home features a brand-new kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, new washer and dryer, new flooring throughout, and fresh paint. Enjoy the fully renovated bathroom, along with major exterior and mechanical updates including a new driveway, gutters, and utilities. A perfect blend of modern upgrades and comfortable living!

8. 2026-04-13
   historical $279,900 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Beautifully updated single-family rambler in Circle Pines! This move-in-ready home features a brand-new kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, new washer and dryer, new flooring throughout, and fresh paint. Enjoy the fully renovated bathroom, along with major exterior and mechanical updates including a new driveway, gutters, and utilities. A perfect blend of modern upgrades and comfortable living!

9. 2025-06-25
   soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,698 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,916 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$4,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$977
• After-tax cash flow: $1,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centennial Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2708100
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $84,468
• Composite: 54.78/100
• National rank: #1316
• State rank: #26 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #1096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, MN
• County: Anoka County · 277,116 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 29,047
• Household income: $103,658
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 473.0

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 4% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.50%
• Current HPI: 242.8272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+154.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $279,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Coming Soon $279,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,698 · -15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.