151 Wilderness Rd

Lynchburg, VA 24588

$299,900D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,908/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-303/mo
• Annual: $-3,639/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (36.4% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $191k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Yellow Branch Elementary (math 60% / reading 63%, grade B, #516 of 1,108 statewide, top 47%, 573 students, 74% FRL); Rustburg Middle (math 49% / reading 65%, grade B, #178 of 342 statewide, top 53%, 606 students, 74% FRL); Rustburg High (math 77% / reading 67%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 828 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $230k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.