151 Wilderness Rd · Lynchburg, VA 24588

$299,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1997 0.52 ac lot $200/sqft · at area comps Est $353k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED $10,000 The large covered front porch welcomes you into this beautiful home with hardwood floors that were just refinished and fresh paint throughout. You enter the huge living room with vaulted ceilings which leads you to the stunning large sunroom with mountain views. All the bedrooms are nice size and the master includes a walk-in closet and full bath. The full basement includes is ready to be finished and already has a full bath completed. Easy to add another bedroom or more living space. The beautiful lawn includes a nice shed for storage. Come and view this beautiful home which is ready for a new family. One owner home that took great care of this house. 10 minutes to LU.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Sunroom
• Finished full bath

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SUNROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• FINISHED FULL BATH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built on full basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Has view; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating)
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Deck and porch; Full walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Yellow Branch Elementary (math 60% / reading 63%, grade B, #516 of 1,108 statewide, top 47%, 573 students, 74% FRL); Rustburg Middle (math 49% / reading 65%, grade B, #178 of 342 statewide, top 53%, 606 students, 74% FRL); Rustburg High (math 77% / reading 67%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 828 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $230k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,847 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,415
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -15.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
448 Mantle Dr Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	4mo	$293,000	$203	82
96 Ford Ter	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-6%)	4mo	$350,000	$249	69
958 Sunnymeade Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+2%)	14mo	$257,500	$168	66
42 Bentridge Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+6%)	24mo	$355,000	$224	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-68,044
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-84,658
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24588

• Home prices YoY: -20.5%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,908 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,359/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,292

Max offer price $246,327

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-133	-5% $-218	+0% $-303	+5% $-388	+10% $-473
Rent	-10% $-454	-5% $-379	+0% $-303	+5% $-228	+10% $-152
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-227	base $-303	+0.5pp $-381	+1.0pp $-460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
76 High St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.5	1333	$1,795	$1.35	23d	1	0.53mi
87 High St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	4.0	2175	$2,295	$1.06	45d	1	0.55mi
87 High St Unit 87 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	3.5	2175	$2,295	$1.06	45d	1	0.55mi
9 Gloucester Dr Lynchburg, VA	4.0	3.5	1748	$1,850	$1.06	45d	1	1.05mi
81 Catherine Ct Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.5	1328	$1,500	$1.13	15d	1	1.09mi
108 Old Tavern Cir Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,450	$1.34	45d	1	1.09mi
104 Squire Cir Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1296	$1,700	$1.31	45d	1	1.12mi
32 Allure Dr Rustburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1508	$2,000	$1.33	23d	1	1.32mi
126 Allure Dr Rustburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1508	$1,900	$1.26	15d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $299,900 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $299,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $339,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $339,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $339,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $339,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $339,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-05-14
    price $339,900 729-char remark
12. 2026-05-14
    listed $344,900 Active 729-char remark
13. 2026-04-28
    status Active
14. 2026-04-01
    status Pending
15. 2025-12-27
    price $344,900
16. 2025-12-03
    price $349,900
17. 2025-11-21
    status Active
18. 2025-11-17
    status Pending
19. 2025-11-12
    price $354,900
20. 2025-10-30
    listed $364,900 Active
21. 2020-08-17
    soldstatus $230,000
22. 2020-08-14
    soldstatus $230,000

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED $10,000 The large covered front porch welcomes you into this beautiful home with hardwood floors that were just refinished and fresh paint throughout. You enter the huge living room with vaulted ceilings which leads you to the stunning large sunroom with mountain views. All the bedrooms are nice size and the master includes a walk-in closet and full bath. The full basement includes is ready to be finished and already has a full bath completed. Easy to add another bedroom or more living space. The beautiful lawn includes a nice shed for storage. Come and view this beautiful home which is ready for a new family. One owner home that took great care of this house. 10 minutes to LU.

23. 2020-06-22
    listed $224,900

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED $10,000 The large covered front porch welcomes you into this beautiful home with hardwood floors that were just refinished and fresh paint throughout. You enter the huge living room with vaulted ceilings which leads you to the stunning large sunroom with mountain views. All the bedrooms are nice size and the master includes a walk-in closet and full bath. The full basement includes is ready to be finished and already has a full bath completed. Easy to add another bedroom or more living space. The beautiful lawn includes a nice shed for storage. Come and view this beautiful home which is ready for a new family. One owner home that took great care of this house. 10 minutes to LU.

24. 1997-05-09
    soldstatus $123,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,359 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,100/yr (+$92/mo · 80.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,359
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,832
• − Management: −$1,832
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$9,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 97,036
• Population (ZIP): 8,664

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: German 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.33%
• Current HPI: 183.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+143.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $299,900 LMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $339,900 LMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $344,900 LMLS
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — LMLS
• 2026-04-01 Pending — LMLS
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $344,900 LMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $349,900 LMLS
• 2025-11-21 Relisted — LMLS
• 2025-11-17 Pending — LMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $354,900 LMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $364,900 LMLS
• 2020-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-14 Sold (MLS) $230,000 LMLS
• 2020-06-22 Listed $224,900 LMLS
• 1997-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,359 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.