2506 Chance Ave

Elkhart, IN 46514

$129,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,118/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-14/mo
• Annual: $-173/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-173/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (13.9% below list).
• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#224 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Elkhart Community Schools (urban): math 18% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #271 of 301 in IN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Osolo Elementary School (math 20% / reading 18%, grade F, #829 of 994 statewide, top 84%, 490 students, 76% FRL); North Side Middle School (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #263 of 330 statewide, top 80%, 627 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 484 units permitted in Elkhart County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Elkhart County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Elkhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.