2506 Chance Ave · Elkhart, IN 46514

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Manufactured · 224 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition $88/sqft · 27% below area Est $179k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.1

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the future of stylish living with this stunning 2025 Clayton Home. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence makes a bold statement with high-contrast design, featuring a striking blackout backsplash in the kitchen and a custom accent wall in the living room. The heart of the home is an expansive eat-in kitchen anchored by a massive center island and sleek stainless steel appliances, creating the ultimate hub for cooking and entertaining. Functionality meets luxury in every corner, from the high-end butler's pantry—perfect for the modern host—to the private primary retreat. Unwind in a master suite that boasts a generous walk-in closet and a contemporary walk-in shower. With its open-concept flow and sophisticated, modern finishes, this 2025 model is engineered for those who want a home that looks as good as it feels.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Built 2026
• Listed 223 days

Tags

• EXPANSIVE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• MASSIVE CENTER ISLAND
• HIGH-END BUTLER'S PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY RETREAT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CONTEMPORARY WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-173/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Elkhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#224 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Elkhart Community Schools (urban): math 18% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #271 of 301 in IN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Osolo Elementary School (math 20% / reading 18%, grade F, #829 of 994 statewide, top 84%, 490 students, 76% FRL); North Side Middle School (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #263 of 330 statewide, top 80%, 627 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 484 units permitted in Elkhart County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elkhart County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $111,809 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,647
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -27.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1313 Freda Dr Unit C	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+5%)	0mo	$239,900	$155	66
2020 Woodland Estates Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+5%)	4mo	$326,000	$211	64
1605 Erwin St	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-0%)	5mo	$239,000	$163	60
1400 Grant St	1.42mi	3/1.0	1,506 (+2%)	3mo	$203,000	$135	55
2216 Woodland Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+21%)	2mo	$315,000	$177	51
53598 Hickory Ln	1.46mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+11%)	2mo	$320,000	$195	45
52035 County Road 9	1.46mi	3/1.5	1,656 (+12%)	1mo	$249,000	$150	42
1630 Grant St	1.30mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+24%)	1mo	$250,000	$137	39
502 Sunset Ave	1.45mi	3/2.0	1,821 (+24%)	4mo	$227,000	$125	37
1430 Mcpherson St	1.33mi	3/2.0	1,158 (-22%)	4mo	$165,000	$142	36
2000 Greenleaf Blvd	1.44mi	3/1.0	1,264 (-14%)	6mo	$345,000	$273	32
26080 County Road 4	1.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+24%)	5mo	$207,000	$113	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-17,233
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,917
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 65 active
• Median asking: $128,400 ($88/sqft)
• Median days on market: 100 d
• This list price: 52% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +37.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46514

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,118 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $127,815

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $30	+0% $-14	+5% $-59	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-59	+0% $-14	+5% $30	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $19	base $-14	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2231 Osolo Rd Elkhart, IN	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,225	$0.88	0d	1	0.18mi
1875 Osolo Rd Elkhart, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	948	$1,300	$1.37	0d	1	0.64mi
2001 Sugar Maple Ln Elkhart, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0	823	$1,225	$1.49	0d	12	0.69mi
2002 Raintree Dr Elkhart, IN	2.0	1.5–2.0	1049	$1,554	$1.48	0d	4	0.98mi
2002 Raintree Dr Unit 2103-1 Elkhart, IN	2.0	1.5	1034	$1,609	$1.56	51d	1	0.99mi
26154 Rogers Rd Unit C Elkhart, IN	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,800	$1.25	0d	1	1.30mi
2304 Grant St Elkhart, IN	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	184d	1	1.37mi
2641 Muirfield Dr Elkhart, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,513	$1.75	0d	3	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-01
   days on market $129,900 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-09-30
   days on market $129,900 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-09-29
   days on market $129,900 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-09-28
   days on market $129,900 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-09-27
   days on market $129,900 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-09-26
   days on market $129,900 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-09-25
   days on market $129,900 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-09-24
   days on market $129,900 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-09-24
   days on market $129,900 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-09-22
    days on market $129,900 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-09-20
    days on market $129,900 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-09-18
    days on market $129,900 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-09-17
    days on market $129,900 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-09-16
    days on market $129,900 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-09-15
    days on market $129,900 Active 208 DOM
16. 2026-09-14
    days on market $129,900 Active 207 DOM
17. 2026-09-13
    days on market $129,900 Active 206 DOM
18. 2026-09-12
    days on market $129,900 Active 205 DOM
19. 2026-09-11
    days on market $129,900 Active 204 DOM
20. 2026-09-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 198 DOM
21. 2026-09-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 197 DOM
22. 2026-09-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 196 DOM
23. 2026-08-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 193 DOM
24. 2026-08-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 192 DOM
25. 2026-08-29
    days on market $129,900 Active 191 DOM
26. 2026-08-28
    days on market $129,900 Active 190 DOM
27. 2026-08-27
    days on market $129,900 Active 189 DOM
28. 2026-08-25
    days on market $129,900 Active 187 DOM
29. 2026-08-24
    days on market $129,900 Active 186 DOM
30. 2026-08-23
    days on market $129,900 Active 185 DOM
31. 2026-08-22
    days on market $129,900 Active 184 DOM
32. 2026-08-21
    days on market $129,900 Active 183 DOM
33. 2026-08-20
    price $129,900 Active 182 DOM
34. 2026-08-20
    days on market $139,900 Active 182 DOM
35. 2026-08-19
    days on market $139,900 Active 181 DOM
36. 2026-08-18
    days on market $139,900 Active 180 DOM
37. 2026-08-17
    days on market $139,900 Active 179 DOM
38. 2026-08-16
    days on market $139,900 Active 178 DOM
39. 2026-08-15
    days on market $139,900 Active 177 DOM
40. 2026-08-15
    days on market $139,900 Active 176 DOM
41. 2026-08-13
    days on market $139,900 Active 175 DOM
42. 2026-08-12
    days on market $139,900 Active 174 DOM
43. 2026-08-11
    days on market $139,900 Active 173 DOM
44. 2026-08-10
    days on market $139,900 Active 172 DOM
45. 2026-08-09
    days on market $139,900 Active 171 DOM
46. 2026-08-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 170 DOM
47. 2026-08-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 169 DOM
48. 2026-08-06
    days on market $139,900 Active 168 DOM
49. 2026-08-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 167 DOM
50. 2026-08-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 166 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,073
• − Management: −$1,073
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$572
• After-tax cash flow: $399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,375–$22,125 screening

This 2025 Clayton Home is in excellent condition with a good exterior and interior. It's move-in ready with potential for minor updates to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior updates (e.g., new flooring, paint) — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Osolo Elementary School F IN #829/994 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle North Side Middle School F IN #263/330 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Elkhart High School F IN #285/369 Nat'l #10,121/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elkhart Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1803270
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 18.45/100
• National rank: #8928
• State rank: #271 of 301 in IN

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Elkhart

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #9852

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elkhart, IN
• County: Elkhart County · 213,761 people
• City population: 74,260
• Metro: Elkhart-Goshen, IN
• Population (ZIP): 42,389
• Household income: $65,833
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Elkhart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 213,761 people
• By 2030: 218,103 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 225,381 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 229,447 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 232,856 · +8.9%
• By 2100: 214,088 · +0.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Elkhart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.1% · R 65.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.2pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+28.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.5 2008: R+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -246.78%
• Current HPI: 225.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: Elkhart-Goshen, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $139,900 Zillow