2506 Chance Ave · Elkhart, IN 46514

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Manufactured · 120 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $95/sqft · at area comps Est $145k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the future of stylish living with this stunning 2025 Clayton Home. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence makes a bold statement with high-contrast design, featuring a striking blackout backsplash in the kitchen and a custom accent wall in the living room. The heart of the home is an expansive eat-in kitchen anchored by a massive center island and sleek stainless steel appliances, creating the ultimate hub for cooking and entertaining. Functionality meets luxury in every corner, from the high-end butler's pantry—perfect for the modern host—to the private primary retreat. Unwind in a master suite that boasts a generous walk-in closet and a contemporary walk-in shower. With its open-concept flow and sophisticated, modern finishes, this 2025 model is engineered for those who want a home that looks as good as it feels.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Built 2026
• Listed 119 days

Tags

• EXPANSIVE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• MASSIVE CENTER ISLAND
• HIGH-END BUTLER'S PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY RETREAT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CONTEMPORARY WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.0% in Elkhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#224 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Elkhart Community Schools (urban): math 18% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #271 of 301 in IN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 269 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 484 units permitted in Elkhart County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elkhart County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.56%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,886
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -3.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25025 Dunny St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+6%)	7mo	$192,500	$123	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,964
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $37,986
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46514

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1875 Osolo Rd Elkhart, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	948	$1,000	$1.05	21d	1	0.64mi
2002 Raintree Dr Elkhart, IN	2.0	1.5	1034	$1,479	$1.43	21d	2	0.98mi
2304 Grant St Elkhart, IN	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-02-19
    listed $139,900 Active 846-char remark

    Show marketing remark (846 chars)

    Step into the future of stylish living with this stunning 2025 Clayton Home. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence makes a bold statement with high-contrast design, featuring a striking blackout backsplash in the kitchen and a custom accent wall in the living room. The heart of the home is an expansive eat-in kitchen anchored by a massive center island and sleek stainless steel appliances, creating the ultimate hub for cooking and entertaining. Functionality meets luxury in every corner, from the high-end butler's pantry—perfect for the modern host—to the private primary retreat. Unwind in a master suite that boasts a generous walk-in closet and a contemporary walk-in shower. With its open-concept flow and sophisticated, modern finishes, this 2025 model is engineered for those who want a home that looks as good as it feels.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$54
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13
• After-tax cash flow: $2,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2025 Clayton Home is in excellent condition with a good exterior and interior. It's move-in ready with potential for minor updates to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Interior updates (e.g., new flooring, paint) — Enhances interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior updates (e.g., new flooring, paint) — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elkhart Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1803270
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 18.45/100
• National rank: #8928
• State rank: #271 of 301 in IN

Livability — Elkhart

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #9852

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elkhart, IN
• County: Elkhart County · 107,928 people
• City population: 74,260
• Metro: Elkhart-Goshen, IN
• Population (ZIP): 42,389
• Household income: $65,833
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1061.0

Population outlook (Elkhart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 213,761 people
• By 2030: 218,103 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 225,381 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 229,447 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 232,856 · +8.9%
• By 2100: 214,088 · +0.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Elkhart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.1% · R 65.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.2pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+28.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.5 2008: R+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -246.78%
• Current HPI: 225.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: Elkhart-Goshen, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $139,900 Zillow