7638 Peyraud Dr

Suncoast Estates, FL 33917

$195,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Built 2019 · Manufactured · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,625/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$78
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-11/mo
• Annual: $-127/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-127/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: commute D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Diplomat Elementary School (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 1,069 students, 56% FRL); Mariner Middle School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 1,001 students, 53% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 846 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.