502 Timberlane Ct

Lake Mary, FL 32746

$219,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Pending · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,924/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$232
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-47/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-47/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (12.2% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#128 in FL, #1,923 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living D-.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Lake Elementary School (math 59% / reading 69%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 700 students, 48% FRL); Millennium Middle School (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D+, #291 of 571 statewide, top 52%, 1,347 students, 70% FRL); Seminole High School (math 35% / reading 51%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 4,036 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 38% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 322 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $219k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Mary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.