3511 Lakin Ave

Great Bend, KS 67530

$64,900C+

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,004 sqft · Built 1938 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $933/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $192/mo
• Annual: $2,304/yr
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.68%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $18,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($933 rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#138 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Great Bend (town): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #124 of 169 in KS (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Barton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Barton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.