4401 Thornbriar Ln #106

Orlando, FL 32822

$106,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Built 1987 · Condo · Active · 224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,254/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$556
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$530
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-272/mo
• Annual: $-3,264/yr
• Cap rate: 3.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.00%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $29,680

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $106k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $67k (37.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $106k).
• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $67k (37.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $733 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake George Elementary (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 452 students, 58% FRL); Conway Middle (math 42% / reading 39%, grade F, #360 of 571 statewide, top 64%, 681 students, 60% FRL); William R Boone High (math 36% / reading 58%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,780 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 30d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?