3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,302 sqft ·
Built 1978
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 96 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,436/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,171
Tax + insurance
−$147
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$512
Net cashflow
$606/mo
Annual
$7,274/yr
Cap rate
9.55%
Cash-on-cash
11.64%
DSCR
1.52
1% rule
1.09%
Cash to close
$62,510
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $223k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $223k).
It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $203k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 55/100 on livability (#864 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
Pollock Pines Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #277 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $115k; list at $223k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.8% in Pollock Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZP3RS729GAD83N
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29