5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,335 sqft ·
Built 2004
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 8 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,314/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,652
Tax + insurance
−$435
HOA
−$12
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$486
Net cashflow
$-271/mo
Annual
$-3,247/yr
Cap rate
5.26%
Cash-on-cash
-3.68%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.73%
Cash to close
$88,200
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $315k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (15.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (26.5% below list).
Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $231k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 85/100 on livability (#3 in SD, #610 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Harrisburg School District 41-2 (rural): math 53% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #6 of 59 in SD (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Harrisburg North Middle School - 08 (math 55% / reading 69%, grade B+, #13 of 143 statewide, top 11%, 747 students, 11% FRL); Harrisburg High School - 01 (math 33% / reading 60%, grade D-, #109 of 151 statewide, top 72%, 1,613 students, 9% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 232 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lincoln County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.6% in Sioux Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZPBJZ7A4BFQC67
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29