25051 Lakeshore Dr

Lakeshore Gardens-Hidden Acres, TX 78368

$199,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,407/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-707/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-707/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (29.3% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mathis ISD (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #528 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mathis El (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 409 students, 88% FRL); Mathis Middle (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 319 students, 86% FRL); Mathis H S (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 434 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.