25051 Lakeshore Dr · Lakeshore Gardens-Hidden Acres, TX 78368

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1995 9,060 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for the Perfect Lakeside Getaway? Spend your days fishing off your private pier or inside the large 20X30 METAL WORKSHOP with lights and electric! This home sits on almost a 1/4 acre and has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, Large kitchen with plenty of counter space and an island, large living room, dining room, and indoor laundry. Exterior features a METAL ROOF and 2 covered decks (front and back) Property has an extra deep water well, propane tank, and a septic tank. Priced and being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Durable metal roof
• Screened-in porch

Tags

• LAKEFRONT HOME
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• COVERED DECK
• METAL WORKSHOP
• EXTRA-DEEP WATER WELL
• DURABLE METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Front entry parking; RV access / parking
• Utilities: Well water; Water available; Septic available
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Screened patio; Patio; Dock; Workshop; Chain link fencing; Located on a lake; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Sunroom; Breakfast bar; Window coverings / treatments; Primary bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-707/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mathis ISD (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #528 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mathis El (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 409 students, 88% FRL); Mathis Middle (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 319 students, 86% FRL); Mathis H S (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 434 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,707 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $35,137
• Equity at exit: $105,461

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $112,790
• Equity at exit: $176,235

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78368

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,407 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $528/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,482

Max offer price $188,589

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $-3	+0% $-59	+5% $-115	+10% $-172
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-115	+0% $-59	+5% $-3	+10% $52
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-8	base $-59	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    remarks 693-char remark
18. 2026-05-31
    listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $528 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,113/yr (+$259/mo · 589.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$528
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,351
• − Management: −$1,351
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,026
• After-tax cash flow: $319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829400
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,954
• Composite: 29.47/100
• National rank: #6509
• State rank: #528 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakeshore Gardens-Hidden Acres

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeshore Gardens-Hidden Acres, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,474

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 33% Two or more races 32%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.39%
• Current HPI: 98.6577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+151.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $199,000 CBMLS
• 2023-05-23 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2023-05-02 Pending — CBMLS
• 2023-04-29 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2023-04-13 Listed $150,000 CBMLS
• 2022-12-09 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2022-11-29 Pending — CBMLS
• 2022-11-23 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2022-10-24 Listed $150,000 CBMLS
• 2022-10-21 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2022-07-22 Price Changed $189,900 CBMLS
• 2022-06-13 Listed $220,000 CBMLS
• 2008-01-17 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2007-02-14 Listed $79,000 CBMLS

Property tax history

-10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $528 · -51.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.