126 Balsam Ave

Caroga Lake, NY 12032

$79,900B+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $314/mo
• Annual: $3,765/yr
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.83%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#870 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, schools D+.
• Wheelerville Union Free School District (rural): math 35% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #707 of 755 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $80k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 1.4% in Caroga Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.