126 Balsam Ave · Caroga Lake, NY 12032

$79,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1949 5,662 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable year round living near the lake. This 4 bedroom home with deeded lake rights to Caroga Lake offers a rare opportunity to enjoy Adirondack living at an approachable price point . The lake access is conveniently located a short distance away, making it easy to spend your days enjoying boating, swimming, fishing, and everything Caroga Lake has to offer. Inside, the home features a living room, eat in kitchen, four bedrooms, and one full bath, providing flexible space for family, guests, or weekend retreats. The covered front porch offers a relaxing place to unwind and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. This property has character and potential, making it an excellent opportunity for b

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Deeded lake rights
• Quiet setting

Tags

• DEEDED LAKE RIGHTS
• LAKE ACCESS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• QUIET SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 3 vehicles
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service with circuit breakers; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Facing not specified
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Deeded water access to Caroga Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the first floor; Three bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Space heater
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Pillar/post/pier basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 1.4% in Caroga Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#870 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, schools D+.
• Wheelerville Union Free School District (rural): math 35% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #707 of 755 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $80k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.83%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,300
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Garlock Rd	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	880 (+2%)	13mo	$180,000	$205	70
118 Forest Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0 (-1)	984 (+14%)	11mo	$135,000	$137	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $63,518
• Equity at exit: $71,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.66×
• Total profit: $171,369
• Equity at exit: $155,228

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12032

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,215/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $701

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $79,900 Active
16. 2002-12-03
    soldstatus $29,680

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,215 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,282 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$68/yr (+$6/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,215
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,054
• − Management: −$1,054
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$637
• After-tax cash flow: $3,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wheelerville Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3631200
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,872
• Composite: 30.81/100
• National rank: #11381
• State rank: #707 of 755 in NY

Livability — Caroga Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #16797

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing C- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caroga Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 710

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.26%
• Current HPI: 496.3613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+169.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $79,900 Global MLS
• 2002-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $29,680 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,215 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.