159 Azalea Aly

Castroville, TX 78009

$549,900D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,112 sqft · Built 2023 · Other · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,684/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$986
• HOA: −$14
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$984
• Net cashflow: $-183/mo
• Annual: $-2,196/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $153,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath other listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $518k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $468k (14.8% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($533k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $468k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Castroville El (math 59% / reading 62%, grade B-, #385 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 644 students, 55% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 24 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.9% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.