159 Azalea Aly · Castroville, TX 78009

$549,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,112 sqft · Other public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2023 10,454 sqft lot $177/sqft · 8% below area Est $595k · 8% under $14/mo HOA ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

From the moment you step into the Wilson floor plan, you will feel right at home. The stunning chef-ready kitchen provides the perfect space for creating your favorite meals and inviting friends over for dinner. Expansive and inviting, the living room features large glass sliding doors, overlooking the covered back patio. A flex room allows you the space for a home office, library, or formal dining room. An upstairs game room provides an additional living space, convenient to the upstairs bedrooms. The lifestyle you've been dreaming of can be found in the Wilson at Potranco West!

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• Flex room
• Game room

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• FLEX ROOM
• GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Down payment assistance not indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $168 annually; Association transfer fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Gas service: CPS Energy; Electricity: Medina Elect; Water: Yancey Water; Sewer: Forest Glen; Garbage service: Tiger Sanita; Water and sewer system connections
• Home design: New construction by Terrata Homes; Builder plans used for square footage; Subdivision: POTRANCO WEST
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Brick, 3-sided masonry, stone/rock, and siding exterior; Controlled access neighborhood

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Stove/Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Ice maker connection
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet, ceiling fan, and full bath (18 x 16); Bedroom 2 (12 x 15); Bedroom 3 (13 x 11); Bedroom 4 (12 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: Total: 4 bathrooms (3 full, 1 half); Master bath with separate tub and shower (12 x 10)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Washer and dryer connections; Microwave; Stove/Range; Refrigerator; Disposal; Dishwasher; Ice maker connection; Smoke alarm; Gas water heater; Garage door opener; In-wall pest control; Private garbage service; One living area; Separate dining room; Utility room inside; High ceilings; Cable TV available; High-speed internet; Walk-in closets; Attic with radiant barrier decking; All window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility room (9 x 6) inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath other listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $518k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $468k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $468k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.9% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Castroville El (math 59% / reading 62%, grade B-, #385 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 644 students, 55% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($533k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 24 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $468,422 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $595,460
• List price: $549,900
• Delta: -7.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-100,643
• Equity at exit: $81,992

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-102,155
• Equity at exit: $47,545

Cash invested: $153,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$757 /mo · $9,081/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$14
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$984
• Net cashflow: $-183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,916

Max offer price $517,565

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $-27	+0% $-183	+5% $-339	+10% $-494
Rent	-10% $-553	-5% $-368	+0% $-183	+5% $2	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $-43	base $-183	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,475
• Closing costs: $16,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	45d	1	0.43mi
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	6d	1	0.81mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $14 · $168/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $549,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $549,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $549,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $549,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $549,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $549,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $549,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $549,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $549,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $549,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $549,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $549,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $549,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $549,900 857-char remark
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $579,900 New 857-char remark
17. 2026-04-15
    historical
18. 2026-04-10
    status Back on Market
19. 2026-04-08
    historical
20. 2026-03-02
    listed $579,900 New
21. 2026-02-25
    historical
22. 2026-01-28
    historical

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    From the moment you step into the Wilson floor plan, you will feel right at home. The stunning chef-ready kitchen provides the perfect space for creating your favorite meals and inviting friends over for dinner. Expansive and inviting, the living room features large glass sliding doors, overlooking the covered back patio. A flex room allows you the space for a home office, library, or formal dining room. An upstairs game room provides an additional living space, convenient to the upstairs bedrooms. The lifestyle you've been dreaming of can be found in the Wilson at Potranco West!

23. 2026-01-26
    listed $539,900 New
24. 2025-12-10
    historical
25. 2025-12-08
    listed $539,900 New

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    From the moment you step into the Wilson floor plan, you will feel right at home. The stunning chef-ready kitchen provides the perfect space for creating your favorite meals and inviting friends over for dinner. Expansive and inviting, the living room features large glass sliding doors, overlooking the covered back patio. A flex room allows you the space for a home office, library, or formal dining room. An upstairs game room provides an additional living space, convenient to the upstairs bedrooms. The lifestyle you've been dreaming of can be found in the Wilson at Potranco West!

26. 2025-12-05
    price $539,900
27. 2025-11-05
    historical
28. 2025-11-03
    listed $579,900 New
29. 2025-10-31
    status Back on Market
30. 2025-10-29
    historical
31. 2025-10-01
    historical
32. 2025-09-29
    listed $579,900 New
33. 2025-09-22
    price $572,900
34. 2025-09-13
    price $582,900
35. 2025-09-03
    historical
36. 2025-09-01
    listed $592,900 New
37. 2025-07-28
    listed $592,900 New
38. 2025-07-23
    historical
39. 2025-07-04
    price $592,900
40. 2025-06-18
    historical
41. 2025-06-16
    listed $585,900 New
42. 2025-05-21
    historical
43. 2025-05-19
    listed $585,900 New
44. 2025-04-16
    historical
45. 2025-04-14
    listed $585,900 New
46. 2025-03-19
    historical
47. 2025-03-17
    listed $585,900 New
48. 2025-02-19
    historical
49. 2025-02-17
    listed $585,900 New
50. 2025-01-22
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,081 · $757/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,063 · $839/mo
• Expected delta: +$983/yr (+$82/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,803
• − Property taxes: −$9,081
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,497
• − Management: −$4,497
• − HOA: −$168
• − Depreciation: −$15,997
• Taxable loss: −$11,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,779
• After-tax cash flow: $583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

60 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $549,900 LERA
• 2026-05-19 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $549,900 LERA
• 2026-05-01 Listed $579,900 LERA
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-03-02 Listed $579,900 LERA
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-01-26 Listed $539,900 LERA
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-12-08 Listed $539,900 LERA
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $539,900 LERA
• 2025-11-05 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-11-03 Listed $579,900 LERA
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-09-29 Listed $579,900 LERA
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $572,900 LERA
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $582,900 LERA
• 2025-09-03 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-09-01 Listed $592,900 LERA
• 2025-07-28 Listed $592,900 LERA
• 2025-07-23 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $592,900 LERA
• 2025-06-18 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-06-16 Listed $585,900 LERA
• 2025-05-21 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-05-19 Listed $585,900 LERA
• 2025-04-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-04-14 Listed $585,900 LERA
• 2025-03-19 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-03-17 Listed $585,900 LERA
• 2025-02-19 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-02-17 Listed $585,900 LERA
• 2025-01-22 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-01-20 Listed $585,900 LERA
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $585,900 LERA
• 2024-12-18 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-12-16 Listed $579,900 LERA
• 2024-11-20 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-11-18 Listed $579,900 LERA
• 2024-10-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-10-14 Listed $579,900 LERA
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $581,900 LERA
• 2024-09-11 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-09-09 Listed $576,900 LERA
• 2024-08-30 Price Changed $576,900 LERA
• 2024-08-12 Listed $593,900 LERA
• 2024-08-07 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-07-26 Price Changed $593,900 LERA
• 2024-06-26 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-06-24 Listed $603,900 LERA
• 2024-06-07 Price Changed $603,900 LERA
• 2024-05-13 Listed $599,900 LERA
• 2024-05-08 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-04-19 Price Changed $599,900 LERA
• 2024-04-03 Listing Removed — LERA

Property tax history

+350.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,081 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.