152 Sheppard Dr

Williamsburg, VA 23185

$405,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,470/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax + insurance: −$357
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-530/mo
• Annual: $-6,356/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.60%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $113,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-530 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (39.0% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($381k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $247k (39.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 390 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $405k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.