152 Sheppard Dr · Williamsburg, VA 23185

$405,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1964 9,147 sqft lot $219/sqft · 11% above area Est $385k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this move-in ready single family home in one of Williamsburg’s most desirable locations near York County schools, Colonial Williamsburg, shopping, dining, and I-64. This updated home features all new flooring throughout and a bright, open layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen includes brand-new appliances, new countertops, and clean, contemporary finishes. The updated bathroom offers a fresh, stylish design. A rare find in Williamsburg, this home includes a basement, ideal for additional living space, home office, gym, or storage. Enjoy low-maintenance living with major updates already completed. Convenient location, modern upgrades, and flexible space make this home a must-see. Schedule your private tour today.

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• Modern finishes
• Oversized layout

Tags

• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• MODERN FINISHES
• OVERSIZED LAYOUT
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-64

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-530 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (39.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (39.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 390 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($381k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $405k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,031 (39.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.60%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $385,034
• List price: $405,000
• Delta: 5.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
418 Musket Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,942 (+5%)	2mo	$405,000	$209	72
505 Hubbard Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-10%)	0mo	$230,000	$137	68
105 Glenn Cir	0.17mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,698 (-8%)	5mo	$379,000	$223	67
108 Burgundy Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,720 (-7%)	3mo	$348,000	$202	65
598 Burnham Rd	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,826 (-1%)	4mo	$475,000	$260	60
203 Percussion Rd	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,969 (+6%)	0mo	$440,000	$223	60
113 Hickory Hills Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,664 (-10%)	5mo	$374,900	$225	60
101 Boulder Way	0.38mi	3/2.5	2,012 (+9%)	2mo	$450,000	$224	60
915 Jackson Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,830 (-1%)	2mo	$340,000	$186	58
117 W Semple Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,601 (-14%)	4mo	$268,000	$167	57
102 Springfield Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,675 (-10%)	2mo	$364,900	$218	49
604 Musket Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,606 (-13%)	0mo	$387,000	$241	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-93,904
• Equity at exit: $60,387

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-101,745
• Equity at exit: $35,017

Cash invested: $113,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23185

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,470 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,263/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-530

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,141

Max offer price $311,438

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,250
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
304 Brittania Dr Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1545	$2,650	$1.72	12d	1	0.21mi
211 Hubbard Ln Williamsburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1267	$1,800	$1.42	17d	1	0.24mi
104 Merlot Dr Williamsburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1467	$2,350	$1.60	44d	1	0.32mi
105 Chardonnay Rd Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,895	$1.68	44d	1	0.35mi
612 Queens Creek Rd Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	2108	$2,495	$1.18	2d	1	0.50mi
200 Mal Mae Ct Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	985	$1,700	$1.73	2d	7	0.88mi
105 Green St Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.5	1938	$2,375	$1.23	7d	1	0.94mi
137 Parkway Ct Williamsburg, VA	4.0	3.5	2261	$2,700	$1.19	20d	1	1.01mi
301 Starkey Pl Williamsburg, VA	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,995	$1.38	44d	1	1.20mi
1574 Green Hill St Williamsburg, VA	3.0	3.5	1867	$2,695	$1.44	2d	1	1.41mi
4050 Battery Blvd Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$2,488	$2.27	2d	18	1.43mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-15
   historical Active Under Contract 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Welcome to this move-in ready single family home in one of Williamsburg’s most desirable locations near York County schools, Colonial Williamsburg, shopping, dining, and I-64. This updated home features all new flooring throughout and a bright, open layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen includes brand-new appliances, new countertops, and clean, contemporary finishes. The updated bathroom offers a fresh, stylish design. A rare find in Williamsburg, this home includes a basement, ideal for additional living space, home office, gym, or storage. Enjoy low-maintenance living with major updates already completed. Convenient location, modern upgrades, and flexible space make this home a must-see. Schedule your private tour today.

2. 2026-05-11
   price $405,000 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Welcome to this move-in ready single family home in one of Williamsburg’s most desirable locations near York County schools, Colonial Williamsburg, shopping, dining, and I-64. This updated home features all new flooring throughout and a bright, open layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen includes brand-new appliances, new countertops, and clean, contemporary finishes. The updated bathroom offers a fresh, stylish design. A rare find in Williamsburg, this home includes a basement, ideal for additional living space, home office, gym, or storage. Enjoy low-maintenance living with major updates already completed. Convenient location, modern upgrades, and flexible space make this home a must-see. Schedule your private tour today.

3. 2026-04-03
   status Active 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Welcome to this move-in ready single family home in one of Williamsburg’s most desirable locations near York County schools, Colonial Williamsburg, shopping, dining, and I-64. This updated home features all new flooring throughout and a bright, open layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen includes brand-new appliances, new countertops, and clean, contemporary finishes. The updated bathroom offers a fresh, stylish design. A rare find in Williamsburg, this home includes a basement, ideal for additional living space, home office, gym, or storage. Enjoy low-maintenance living with major updates already completed. Convenient location, modern upgrades, and flexible space make this home a must-see. Schedule your private tour today.

4. 2026-03-31
   historical Active Under Contract 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Welcome to this move-in ready single family home in one of Williamsburg’s most desirable locations near York County schools, Colonial Williamsburg, shopping, dining, and I-64. This updated home features all new flooring throughout and a bright, open layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen includes brand-new appliances, new countertops, and clean, contemporary finishes. The updated bathroom offers a fresh, stylish design. A rare find in Williamsburg, this home includes a basement, ideal for additional living space, home office, gym, or storage. Enjoy low-maintenance living with major updates already completed. Convenient location, modern upgrades, and flexible space make this home a must-see. Schedule your private tour today.

5. 2026-03-27
   listed $419,000 Active 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Welcome to this move-in ready single family home in one of Williamsburg’s most desirable locations near York County schools, Colonial Williamsburg, shopping, dining, and I-64. This updated home features all new flooring throughout and a bright, open layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen includes brand-new appliances, new countertops, and clean, contemporary finishes. The updated bathroom offers a fresh, stylish design. A rare find in Williamsburg, this home includes a basement, ideal for additional living space, home office, gym, or storage. Enjoy low-maintenance living with major updates already completed. Convenient location, modern upgrades, and flexible space make this home a must-see. Schedule your private tour today.

6. 2026-01-30
   historical 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Great opportunity to be in a lovely little neighborhood in York County. Bring your ideas and bring this home back to life! The overall bones of the house are good. Main floor has 2 bedrooms, kitchen, living room and a dining room and additional living room and 2 bedroom options on lower level. A workshop and storage cellar too. The back deck and private yard need some tlc but would be great space for gardens and entertaining! New insulation in the attic. The hardwood floors are in good shape.

7. 2026-01-30
   soldstatus $215,000 Sold 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Great opportunity to be in a lovely little neighborhood in York County. Bring your ideas and bring this home back to life! The overall bones of the house are good. Main floor has 2 bedrooms, kitchen, living room and a dining room and additional living room and 2 bedroom options on lower level. A workshop and storage cellar too. The back deck and private yard need some tlc but would be great space for gardens and entertaining! New insulation in the attic. The hardwood floors are in good shape.

8. 2026-01-30
   soldstatus $215,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Great opportunity to be in a lovely little neighborhood in York County. Bring your ideas and bring this home back to life! The overall bones of the house are good. Main floor has 2 bedrooms, kitchen, living room and a dining room and additional living room and 2 bedroom options on lower level. A workshop and storage cellar too. The back deck and private yard need some tlc but would be great space for gardens and entertaining! New insulation in the attic. The hardwood floors are in good shape.

9. 2026-01-30
   soldstatus $215,000

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Great opportunity to be in a lovely little neighborhood in York County. Bring your ideas and bring this home back to life! The overall bones of the house are good. Main floor has 2 bedrooms, kitchen, living room and a dining room and additional living room and 2 bedroom options on lower level. A workshop and storage cellar too. The back deck and private yard need some tlc but would be great space for gardens and entertaining! New insulation in the attic. The hardwood floors are in good shape.

10. 2026-01-20
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Great opportunity to be in a lovely little neighborhood in York County. Bring your ideas and bring this home back to life! The overall bones of the house are good. Main floor has 2 bedrooms, kitchen, living room and a dining room and additional living room and 2 bedroom options on lower level. A workshop and storage cellar too. The back deck and private yard need some tlc but would be great space for gardens and entertaining! New insulation in the attic. The hardwood floors are in good shape.

11. 2026-01-20
    listed $225,000 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Great opportunity to be in a lovely little neighborhood in York County. Bring your ideas and bring this home back to life! The overall bones of the house are good. Main floor has 2 bedrooms, kitchen, living room and a dining room and additional living room and 2 bedroom options on lower level. A workshop and storage cellar too. The back deck and private yard need some tlc but would be great space for gardens and entertaining! New insulation in the attic. The hardwood floors are in good shape.

12. 2026-01-20
    historical 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Great opportunity to be in a lovely little neighborhood in York County. Bring your ideas and bring this home back to life! The overall bones of the house are good. Main floor has 2 bedrooms, kitchen, living room and a dining room and additional living room and 2 bedroom options on lower level. A workshop and storage cellar too. The back deck and private yard need some tlc but would be great space for gardens and entertaining! New insulation in the attic. The hardwood floors are in good shape.

13. 2026-01-20
    listed $225,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Great opportunity to be in a lovely little neighborhood in York County. Bring your ideas and bring this home back to life! The overall bones of the house are good. Main floor has 2 bedrooms, kitchen, living room and a dining room and additional living room and 2 bedroom options on lower level. A workshop and storage cellar too. The back deck and private yard need some tlc but would be great space for gardens and entertaining! New insulation in the attic. The hardwood floors are in good shape.

14. 2014-06-27
    soldstatus $174,000
15. 2014-06-27
    soldstatus $174,000
16. 2014-04-11
    listed $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,263 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,321 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,058/yr (+$88/mo · 46.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$2,263
• − Insurance: −$2,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,371
• − Management: −$2,371
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable loss: −$13,855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,325
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104150
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,985
• Composite: 72.34/100
• National rank: #202
• State rank: #3 of 131 in VA

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #734

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamsburg City · 55,270 people
• City population: 101,073
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,270
• Household income: $105,431
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,000 people
• By 2030: 78,122 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 83,329 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 87,381 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 99,308 · +32.4%
• By 2100: 101,751 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 14% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.3% · R 52.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.9pp toward D · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.15%
• Current HPI: 240.1637
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+125.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $405,000 REINMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-03-31 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $419,000 REINMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-30 Sold (MLS) $215,000 WMLS
• 2026-01-30 Sold (MLS) $215,000 REINMLS
• 2026-01-20 Pending — WMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $225,000 WMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $225,000 REINMLS
• 2014-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $174,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-27 Sold (MLS) $174,000 WMLS
• 2014-04-11 Listed $180,000 WMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,263 · +22.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.