2931 Fm 31 N

De Berry, TX 75639

$139,999C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,636/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $401/mo
• Annual: $4,815/yr
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.28%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Elysian Fields ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #136 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elysian Fields El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 374 students, 50% FRL); Elysian Fields Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 180 students, 52% FRL); Elysian Fields H S (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 259 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Panola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.