2931 Fm 31 N · De Berry, TX 75639

$139,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1985 5.00 ac lot $108/sqft · 19% above area Est $118k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Five acres in Elysian Fields ISD with a mobile home and workshop ready for you to build your dream home! This property has lots of potential, move in and live in it exactly as it is or it could be a great place to stay while building, a mother in law home or a rental. There is currently a second mobile home toward the back of the property that is being moved and does not go with the land.

Key facts

• Second mobile home
• Mobile home
• Five acres

Tags

• FIVE ACRES
• MOBILE HOME
• WORKSHOP
• SECOND MOBILE HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Elysian Fields ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #136 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elysian Fields El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 374 students, 50% FRL); Elysian Fields Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 180 students, 52% FRL); Elysian Fields H S (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 259 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Panola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.28%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,011
• List price: $139,999
• Delta: 18.63%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $42,400
• Equity at exit: $62,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $115,114
• Equity at exit: $97,013

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75639

• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,636 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,186/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $441	+0% $401	+5% $362	+10% $322
Rent	-10% $272	-5% $337	+0% $401	+5% $466	+10% $531
Rate	-1.0pp $472	-0.5pp $437	base $401	+0.5pp $365	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $139,999 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,999 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,999 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,999 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $139,999 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,999 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,999 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,999 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,999 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 114 DOM
18. 2026-02-06
    listed $139,999 Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Five acres in Elysian Fields ISD with a mobile home and workshop ready for you to build your dream home! This property has lots of potential, move in and live in it exactly as it is or it could be a great place to stay while building, a mother in law home or a rental. There is currently a second mobile home toward the back of the property that is being moved and does not go with the land.

19. 2007-09-12
    soldstatus
20. 2002-02-26
    soldstatus
21. 2002-02-26
    soldstatus
22. 1995-10-06
    soldstatus
23. 1995-01-25
    soldstatus
24. 1984-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,186 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,376/yr (+$115/mo · 116.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,186
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,571
• − Management: −$1,571
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,692
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$646
• After-tax cash flow: $4,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elysian Fields ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818480
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,512
• Composite: 45.13/100
• National rank: #2684
• State rank: #136 of 826 in TX

Livability — De Berry

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,698

Population outlook (Panola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,273 people
• By 2030: 22,845 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 21,652 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 20,107 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 15,709 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 11,013 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 21% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Panola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.7% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -48.9pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+56.1 2008: R+48.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $139,999 LAAR
• 2007-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,186 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.